U.S. and Russia Close to WTO Deal

I caught this report today on RFE/RL's website:

Sean Spicer, a spokesman for the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, today said all remaining issues in a U.S.-Russian bilateral trade deal are nearly resolved.

This would put Russia one giant step closer to entering the WTO. This would be good for everyone because it will help open Russia's economy, which has been subject to government interference in some very public and high profile cases over the past several years.

Some Soldiers Believe Deadlines a Good Thing

It seems some in the U.S. military are getting ahead of the Bush Administration. Today's L.A. Times has an article on members of the U.S. military who think that deadlines for meeting security benchmarks that would allow withdrawal of American troops are a good thing at this point.

Hadley in Iraq

American National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley is in Iraq, apparently to discuss how to improve the security situation in Iraq, most importantly in Baghdad. Bringing more Iraqi troops to Baghdad seems to be on the table, as well as a possible increase in numbers of American troops in the Iraqi capital.

But the New York Times, somewhat oddly, takes this opportunity to lay out all the options Americans are proposing for the long-term stability of the Iraqi government, from strongman rule to regional division. Or maybe that's just odd to me, because it doesn't seem like any of those things will be discussed by President Bush's national security adviser on a trip to Baghdad to visit Nouri Al Maliki

U.S. Can't Track Arms to Iraqis

American forces have not properly kept track of millions of weapons and other materials that were supposed to go to Iraq's police and military rather than, say militias or death squads, who according to one military source, have infiltrated 70% of Iraq's police forces.

Great.

Why are U.S. Forces Besieging Sadr City?

According to the Washington Post,

1. American forces believe some part of the Mahdi Army is responsible for capturing an Iraqi-American soldier. The soldier's brother, who was captured at the same time and released, said the Mahdi Army was responsible for their capture. U.S. forces are basically trying to get the American soldier back.
2. The U.S. military is trying to capture notorious death squad leader Abu Deraa, who has been claimed off and on by the Mahdi Army.

The U.S. looks like it has taken a stand it is hard to back down from without success. Either they get Abu Deraa or retreat like they did from the capture of Mohammad Farah Aidid in Mogadishu. And they either get the American soldier or admit they cannot save him.

The real question is whether the two operations are the same thing, overlap somewhat or are different parties of a larger strategy. Is the U.S. trying to capture Abu Deraa in order to get an American soldier back?

Pakistani Strike on Madrassah Near Pakistan

Pakistani gunships attacked an Islamic school in Bajaur agency near the border with Afghanistan, acting on American intelligence that Al Qaeda figures were hiding in what is being called an "Al Qaeda training camp." It was also the home of strident Afghan and Pakistani Taliban supporters. However, some reports state that no "high-value targets" - Taliban or Al Qaeda members - were at the madrassah at the time.

Pakistani Islamists and "independent tribal sources" say that American helicopters attacked the school, but both American and Pakistani sources deny this.

The attack was said to have killed close to 80 and to have flattened the school.

One outcome of the attack could be a break between Pervez Musharraf and the Islamists he has worked with in an uneasy coalition. Some worry that Musharraf is losing control over Pakistan's Islamists, and thereby losing control of Pakistan. Pakistan's Taliban-supporting tribesmen are protesting, and the full outcome of those protests is still unknown.

Iran Nuclear Sanctions Discussed in New York . . .

Last night, discussions of a sanctions resolution against Iran continued with representatives of the United States, Germany, France, Britain, Russia and China meeting at the British Mission to the United Nations in New York.

The draft was prepared by Britain, France, and Germany (the EU3). While some reports say the United States supports it, the United States apparently wants some unknown changes to the EU3 draft. One notable difference between the U.S. and EU3 is that the United States does not want an exception for nuclear materials to be used at the Bushehr nuclear facility.

According to France's UN representative, Jean-Marc de la Sabliere, the draft resolution would

1. Prevent sale or supply to Iran of materials for a nuclear and missile program;
2. Ban travel by those involved in the nuclear and missile program;
3. Freeze the assets and funds of people and entities involved in Iran's nuclear and missile program.

The draft resolution would penalize failure to comply under Chapter 7, Article 41, of the UN Charter, which allows for sanctions enforcement, but not military action.

France's President Jacques Chirac stated that he was not convinced of the effectiveness of sanctions and believed that if dialogue fails, sanctions against Iran must be "adjusted, adapted, temporary, reversible."

The United States demanded sanctions against Iran to deter proliferation, with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice stating that "Iran's defiance must be held to account to save the international community's credibility."

Russia questioned the validity of the draft sanctions resolution against Iran, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov saying that it "did not seem to 'match those tasks the six sides agreed on.'" Russia does not support too much pressure on Iran too quickly.

China also questioned the need for sanctions when negotiations are still possible.

"Since the door for diplomatic efforts is still open, why should we rush to sanctions?" said Chinese envoy Li Junhua said to reporters at the UN. "The EU package is still on the table. Sanctions, in our assessment, will not help."

Representatives of the parties are scheduled to meet again on Monday, October 30.

. . . Meanwhile, Iran "Doubles Enrichment Capacity"

Iran is taking steps toward enrichment of uranium and away from negotiations with the U.S., Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China by starting a second cascade of centrifuges to enrich uranium, doubling its nuclear enrichment capacity. The report came from the quasi-official ISNA news agency in Iran.

President Bush called the reports "speculation," and restated that "the idea of Iran having a nuclear weapon is unacceptable, and it’s unacceptable to the United States and it’s unacceptable to nations we’re working with in the United Nations to send a common message." He also stated that the world must "double our effort" to stop Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, in a parallel to Iran's announcement it was doubling its nuclear enrichment capacity.

In France, Foreign Ministry spokesman Jean-Baptiste Mattei stated that this was a "new signal" and a "negative signal" that would be considered in dealing with the Iran "dossier."

In Russia, defense minister/deputy Prime Minister Sergey LIvanov stated that he was not concerned by Iran's starting of a second set of centrifuges because the process was announced publicly and confirmed by the IAEA, and only being operated in "test mode," not performing enrichment. Lavrov stated that "It is at least premature to talk about uranium enrichment in Iran."

I haven't been able to figure out what the governments of Britain, Germany, or China have to say about this new development.

PKK in Iraqi North

Kim Murphy of the L.A. Times reports from inside the PKK guerrilla camps in northern Iraqi Kurdistan, where Iraqi Kurd flags don't even fly and Iraq's civil war seems a world away.

With an autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan under U.S. protection becoming a reality, it doesn't look like Turkey has a realistic chance of eradicating the PKK's insurgency militarily. Social and political integration of Kurds into Turkey are really the only ways to end the fighting.

While an Iraqi haven for the PKK is unfortunate, one positive aspect of an Iraqi Kurdistan under American protection is that the U.S. can pressure Iraqi Kurds to limit PKK activity. For example, the PKK announced a ceasefire after retired U.S. General Ralston visited the region to address "the Kurdish question."

The most troubling question for me is whether the PKK is behind the creation of terrorist groups in Turkey like the "Kurdistan Freedom Falcons" so that it can continue to fight Turkey but deny it plausibly to its Iraqi Kurd hosts, who, in turn, can deny it to the United States. If Turkey sees a connection, and I'm sure they do, this is certain to create tension between the governments of Turkey, Iraqi Kurdistan and the United States.

Rumsfeld vs. The Press

Sometimes you wonder if the press doesn't like Donald Rumsfeld. After Thursday's "contentious" DOD press briefing, wonder no more.

The press clearly see Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld as lacking a fundamental understanding of the press's function in a democracy:

Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld told reporters today to "just back off" and "relax" instead of looking for differences between U.S. and Iraqi officials on benchmarks for progress in Iraq toward political and security goals, and he rejected the idea of penalizing any failure to hit the targets.

Of course, it didn't help that Rumsfeld mocked reporters, said that the press was creating "mischief" and shouted down Jim Miklaszewski when he asked a question not precise enough to be worthy of a Rumsfeld answer. Telling the press to stop doing what they do is ridiculous.

Senator John Kerry's staff clearly saw that Rumsfeld's arrogance and defensiveness weren't working in his favor and took the opportunity to pounce, saying that "Today a secretary of defense, who should have been fired a long time ago, lost even greater touch with reality." Rumsfeld's beleaguered, and I'm sure the press will have its chance to mock him when he's gone.

My biggest problem is that Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld revealed that the benchmarks supposedly being set for security in Iraq -- rejected by Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki, but no matter -- won't be real benchmarks, because those would affect American and Iraqi public opinion and help us determine whether the war is succeeding on the Administration's own terms.

And this Administration does not want to let anyone, let alone the public, determine whether the Iraq war is going well based on any set of criteria that can be reviewed and reported on by the press, even if those criteria are ones of its own choosing. Be prepared to be disgusted when those benchmarks come out.

Pinochet’s Gold

Chilean investigators have located 10 tons of gold belonging to General Augusto Pinochet, estimated to be worth $160 million, hidden in a Hong Kong bank.

Jonathan Franklin’s Washington Post article on the subject states that much of Pinochet’s vast fortune “appears to have been paid to Pinochet in weapons deals.”

My question is, by who?

Boeing Field for Trails from Rails

King County Executive Ron Sims and Port of Seattle CEO Mic Dinsmore announced a deal today under which King County would transfer Boeing Field to the Port of Seattle and the Port of Seattle promised to buy 47 miles of rail right-of-way running east of Seattle from the Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad and transfer it to King County.

The underrused rail corridor would be transformed into a trail and recreation area.

The deal is still preliminary, but sounds like a very interesting proposal to deal with the issue of competition between Boeing Field (owned by King County) and the airport at SeaTac (owned by the Port of Seattle) as well as the possible sale of property with excellent recreation potential to developers.

U.S. Senator Murray (D-WA) said that the scheme “represents the kind of forward thinking that will help secure a brighter future for our region.”

It sounds intriguing, but I am certain that the details and the costs will cause this swap to be a political football for a long time to come.

Sadr City Raid

U.S. and Iraqi special forces raided Sadr City today, with the U.S. military stating that its goal was the capture of a "top illegal armed group commander directing widespread death squad activity throughout eastern Baghdad." That sounds like a very specific goal, one you wouldn't like to announce before successfully capturing the target.

Apparently uninformed of the raid, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki angrily stated that such a raid "would not be repeated," thus clearing up any doubt over whether his government would merely limit militia activity or work to root out the militias themselves -- the question of the week. Maliki has clearly placed himself on the side of the militias' continued existence.

If there was ever any question of whether Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki and Washington were in sync, that question has been answered today. Maliki is against attacks on the Mahdi Army by the U.S., making it clear that he would never attack such a major Shiite militia himself.

And just after the Iraqis apparently said they would accept an American set of benchmarks and timetables for security, Maliki stated in a news conference that "this government represents the will of the people and no one has the right to impose a timetable on it."

President Bush, in his own news conference today, expressed his dissatisfaction with the situation in Iraq, stating that America's patience is "not unlimited" but that "we will not put more pressure on the Iraqi government than it can bear."

President Bush reassured Prime Minister Maliki last week that he still had confidence in Maliki and wouldn't push him out of office. But don't forget that not long after President Bush told FEMA Director Michael Brown that he had done a "heckuva job," Brownie was cut loose to start consulting on emergency management.

Now, President Bush can't just depose the man he crowned the elected leader of Iraq after pushing out Ibrahim Jaafari. But if he thinks Maliki won't do anything, President Bush will ignore Maliki and will work for American goals directly, without bothering with niceties like informing the elected government.

It looks like today we have just seen President Bush's vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Maliki as well as Maliki's countergambit -- a refusal to cooperate with American security benchmark pressure. In either case, it reflects a meltdown of U.S. - Iraqi political relations.

Foreign Fighters Shifting to Afghanistan from Iraq

International salafist militants are shifting back to Afghanistan. The interesting point seems to be that as the war in Iraq has shifted into a civil war, Iraqi Sunni sectarian extremists have asserted control over the insurgency and only want foreigners as anti-Shiite suicide bomb fodder.

Numbers of foreign fighters flowing to Iraq are decreasing, says the head of France's DST, and they are shifting to Afghanistan.

Although the L.A. Times article says salafists who don't want to die in Iraq as martyrs are now headed to Afghanistan, the article also says that increasing numbers of Arab militants heading to Afghanistan has led to the introduction of suicide bombings, a tactic apparently not preferred by locals. (I have no idea why not.)

The article is also interesting in the role it ascribes to Syria:

in the direction of terror in Iraq, Afghanistan, and throughout the Muslim world:The movement of fighters to Iraq began to decline last year as insurgent leaders in Syria, who serve as a conduit to the combat zone, began screening volunteers aggressively, turning them back unless they had strong military skills or were eager to carry out suicide attacks, European anti-terrorism officials said.

Some newcomers were redirected to training camps in North Africa. Others were told to launch attacks in Europe, said a senior Italian anti-terrorism official. He described the confessions of Milan-based Tunisian and Moroccan suspects who got to Syria, but then were sent back: "They said the representative of Zarqawi's group really grilled them: 'Do you have military experience? Here's an AK-47; do you know how to use it? Have you ever fired a mortar? If not, we don't want you.' "

Instead, they were directed to bomb a basilica in Bologna because it displays a painting of the prophet Muhammad as depicted in Dante's Inferno, investigators say. Moroccan and Italian police broke up the alleged plot and arrested the group this spring.

There seems to be a distinctly European focus in the article. I'm not sure whether U.S. sources would agree with all of its conclusions about militants' shift in focus, but the information on what happens in Syria is more specific than I have heard before.

New Jersey: No to Gay Marriage

New Jersey's Supreme Court has ruled that civil unions, rather than marriage, are constitutionally acceptable, though it leaves it up to the New Jersey legislature to make civil unions part of New Jersey law.

Good luck with that.

Jagshemash! Borat Opening Scaled Back

What a mistake. Fox decided to limit the number of theaters where it would be showing Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan.

People should see this movie, just to see how Borat is able to bring so many plainly ridiculous reactions out of Americans. Simply put, trying to put up with goofy weirdos like Borat makes people do dumber and funnier things than you might expect.

Part of the joke is that Borat takes on the United States, the world's military and (some would say) moral superpower. We Americans earnestly preach values like tolerance, democracy, capitalism and the like to the world, but Borat is able to show that Americans aren't as perfect as we pretend to be.

But you wonder if Sacha Baron Cohen would be willing to make "Borat's Guide to Britain" as his next film. It would burst the bubbles of some who will want to crow about American hypocrisy after seeing the Borat movie. I'm sure he could find as many dumb, politically incorrect, lazy and ridiculous people in the U.K. as he did in the U.S.

Emptying Guantanamo

Last week I noticed the apparently hypocritical refusal of Britain, Germany, and other American allies critical of the Guantanamo prison camp to permit prisoners with residency or citizenship in those countries to return there, all the while complaining about the exisitence of the prison's existence.

But the United States' allies decided a leak offensive regarding thesee Guantanamo releases can go both ways. In an article in today's L.A. Times, I see claims that the real issue seems to be that these countries balked at the extensive security measures that the United States (Donald Rumsfeld himself!) was "requiring" these countries exercise over Guantanamo prisoners before their release would be permitted.

Today, Attorney General Alberto Gonzales went to Germany and stated that American allies are to blame for not closing Guantanamo:

"We have repeatedly asked our European allies to join in these efforts," Mr. Gonzales said in a speech to a polite, skeptical audience. "But despite demands that Guantanamo be closed, the United States has received little help from our European allies regarding the fate of these detainees."

Though the visit is cast in terms of "healing a rift," it doesn't seem like this is what's happening. If this was really going to get resolved in a peaceful way, it would be done behind the scenes. In addressing this through public speeches, the Bush Administration is trying to put pressure on Germany and its other allies to surveil former Guantanamo prisoners in the way Americans would want in exchange for their release.

Militant Confirmed Killed in North Waziristan Airstrike

U.S. officials in Pakistan have confirmed that Al Qaeda terrorist Muhsin Musa Matwalli Atwah was killed in an airstrike in North Waziristan in April 2006.

My question now, if the United States can confirm it uses airstrikes to tackle Al Qaeda militants in Pakistan, is as follows.

Will the United States confirm that Hayat Ullah Khan, a Pakistani reporter trained and hired by PBS's Frontline was captured and killed by its Pakistani allies after revealing to the world that a U.S. hellfire missile struck a North Waziristan Al Qaeda hideout in December 2005?

Can Pakistan admit that it allows American drones to monitor Pakistani tribal agencies? Or will it have to kill those who reveal that truth?

What an ally we have in Pakistan.

World's Greatest Flip-flopper

And here's the news on a historic flip-flopper of such great size even Karl Rove wouldn't compare John Kerry to it:

The Amazon has reversed its course several times over the past 110 million years, according to scientists who discovered zircon from the Purus Arch (a decayed mountain range in eastern Brazil) in the central Amazon basin.

Michael Steele

The Washington Post has a profile piece on trailing Maryland Republican senatorial candidate Michael Steele. In the article, a Post reporter finds Steele excoriating Democrats for fraudulently obtaining his credit report, saying he'd willingly give it to anyone.

At his Hagerstown speech, he criticized Cardin because Democratic Party operatives fraudulently obtained his credit report.

"Anyone who wants my credit report, I'd be happy to give it to you," Steele said. "If you want to know about me, ask me."

Later that day, a Washington Post reporter asked: Is it possible to get your credit report?

"No, it's not," Steele said.

This is particularly interesting because the article states that Steele had some serious money problems when he tried to work as a Republican consultant.

Since 1999, after he'd left his last job, as a lawyer, Steele had been trying to start a consulting business. Bray Barnes, who became Steele's partner in the firm, said they sought to represent countries or companies in their dealings with the federal government, relying on their Republican contacts in Washington.

"I would say we had pretty limited success," said Barnes, a lawyer in Toms River, N.J. He couldn't remember ever signing up a client. There was at least one: During the campaign for governor, after Barnes was no longer working with the business, the Maryland Republican Party was paying the firm, and by extension Steele, a consulting fee of $5,000 a month.

With little money coming in from the business, Steele has said, he drained retirement accounts. He told an audience in a recent speech that his family went without health insurance for three years.

"Don't break anything, because Daddy can't afford to fix it," he recalled telling his sons then.

On Nov. 5, 2002, Steele's election win erased all that. His current job pays $120,000 a year. A rocketing political career had finally made a struggling business one irrelevant. He savored the victory.

Hamiltonian Roots

Here's a link to a good online collection of Alexander Hamilton's writings, Henry Cabot Lodge's 12-volume The Works of Alexander Hamilton, (Federal Edition), published in 1904.

Don't forget to see Volume V (Foreign Relations (continued)), which includes Camillus essays I - XXIII, and Volume VI (Foreign Relations, Foreign Policy, The Whiskey Rebellion, Military Papers), which includes Camillus essays XXIV - XXXVIII.

This, the only real collection of Hamilton's works online, doesn't include the Philo Camillus essays that Hamilton wrote as a supplement to his Camillus essays to excoriate his opponents in the dispute over the Jay Treaty.

The complete writings of Hamilton were published in 27 volumes as edited by Harold C. Syrett, Harold C. and titled The Papers of Alexander Hamilton.

I mention these source materials as I start this blog because Hamilton wrote, as bloggers often do, important writings addressing current events of his time under many pseudonyms. Writing as Camillus, he stood up in favor of the very negatively received Jay Treaty between the United States and Britain following the Revolutionary War and through effective argument, changed public opinion.

Taking inspiration from Hamilton, I hope with this blog to address contemporary American foreign policy issues and thus take his pseudonym as my own.

Camillus and Publius

"As 'Camillus,' Hamilton attempted to for international relations what 'Publius; had done for domestic affairs. In these essays he propounded at such length the principles which he believed ought to guide the United States in its relations with foreign powers that Jefferson was writing 'an Encyclopedia' on international affairs preparatory, presumably, to taking over the direction of the State Department."

John Chester Miller, Alexander Hamilton and the Growth of the New Nation, 2003.