Russia's biggest party seeks Vladimir Putin as leader

By Guy Faulconbridge

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's biggest party will ask President Vladimir Putin to become its leader this week at a conference that could provide the final clue in the riddle of who will really run Russia after Putin steps down.

Putin has said he will serve as prime minister once his protege, Dmitry Medvedev, is sworn in as president on May 7. But for many investors the critical questions of how much power Putin will wield and for how long remain unanswered.

If Putin does accept the invitation from the United Russia party to become its leader, it would significantly entrench his power and indicate, some analysts say, that he is planning to use that position to preserve his long-term influence.

Turning down the job could suggest that Putin, after a trial period to make sure 42-year-old Medvedev settles into the Kremlin job, is planning to take a back seat.

The Kremlin has given no indications about whether Putin will lead the party. Putin is expected to attend the second day of the conference, which opens on Monday.

"If Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin headed United Russia, it would be the very best option," Boris Gryzlov, the head of United Russia and the speaker of the lower house of parliament, told a news conference last week.

"Such a proposal (for Putin to head the party) will probably be made at the congress. I could myself make the proposal and that would be the correct way," Gryzlov said.

Putin used a United Russia conference last year to announce he could serve as premier once his presidency, limited by the constitution to two consecutive terms, came to an end.

Putin, 55, is the country's most popular politician after presiding over Russia's longest economic boom for a generation and cementing Kremlin control after the chaos of the 1990s. His critics, a minority in Russia, accuse him of crushing democracy.

Investors want to know what Putin's final role will be after he steps down because they see political stability as key to Russia's booming $1.3 trillion economy.

RIDDLE NOT SOLVED

Kremlin-watchers believe the riddle of what Putin will do next is still not fully solved because the post of prime minister is an awkward one for someone so powerful.

The prime minister is junior to the president, can be sacked at the president's whim and often carries the can for policy failures. Putin filled the post with a series of low-level technocrats all seen as expendable.

Some analysts see United Russia leadership as a way for Putin to preserve long-term influence by moulding the party, closely tied to the Kremlin since its creation, into a powerful political force in its own right.

The president can sack the prime minister but he has to seek the approval of parliament -- controlled by United Russia -- to appoint a new premier. The party has the two thirds majority required to amend the constitution.

Others say the party's influence and unity could dissolve if the new Kremlin administration withdraws its support.

Putin helped found the party, which was designed in the last days of former President Boris Yeltsin's rule to ensure the Kremlin's control of parliament.

Russia's Vedomosti newspaper reported on Friday that Putin could take a leadership role in the party without being a member.

The paper cited unidentified Kremlin and party officials as saying that United Russia was preparing to create the post of "non-member party leader" who would define strategy rather than take part in day-to-day management.

There is a precedent for leadership of a party, rather than any state position, providing the lever of power in Russia. For much of the 20th century, the leader of the Soviet Communist party held sway over all state institutions.

(Editing by Alison Williams)

Russians elect Medvedev in landslide

Analysts wonder how, or even whether, the new president, Putin's handpicked successor, would share power with his mentor.

By Megan K. Stack
Los Angeles Times Staff Writer

4:35 PM PST, March 2, 2008

MOSCOW — Russians elected 42-year-old lawyer Dmitry Medvedev as their new president in a landslide victory, heralding unpredictable times for this huge, oil- and gas-rich land.

With 80% of the ballots counted, the Central Election Commission reported that he had collected 69% of the votes, far outpacing his three challengers.

For eight years, Russia has grown richer and more influential under President Vladimir V. Putin's steady, often steely hand. With Putin now planning to move into the prime minister's post, the greatest and most unanswerable question hanging over Moscow these days is how he and his protege will share power between them. Some observers are skeptical that either will be willing to play second fiddle for long.

Putin, prevented by the constitution from seeking a third term as president, has shown no eagerness to relinquish authority. Instead, he handpicked his successor and indicated months ago that he would become premier in Medvedev's administration, and that the two men would work together in coming years. Putin recently referred to the prime minister's job as the highest executive authority, although as president he ruled supreme.

The image of executive power shared amiably between two leaders has provoked heavy skepticism here. This country of ruthless politics and brutal history has traditionally been ruled by a single strongman, be it a czar, party leader or president.

"The danger lies not just in the traditional incompatibility of two powerful positions, but also in Medvedev's psychological makeup," said Leonid Sedov, senior researcher at Moscow's Levada Center, an independent polling agency. "I don't think he's just a puppet or just a person without his own character. I think he's a stronger man than he seems."

Some of Putin's critics have predicted that he will continue calling the shots, using Medvedev as a compliant tool. Putin may even try to transfer some authority from the presidency to the premiership, others predicted, although he has said he wouldn't consider altering the existing power structure.

"For the time being, the key decisions will be made by both of them," said Sergei Markov, a lawmaker with Putin's United Russia party who's close to the Kremlin. "We don't know what their relations will be later, but for the time being they will be two people with one hand of power."

Despite the pervasive sense of inevitability over Medvedev's rise to the Kremlin, Russians braved the rain and snow to cast their ballots, answering an aggressive push from the government to get out the vote.

Stepan Zayatz, a 64-year-old retired Moscow police officer who trudged to the polls through ankle-deep slush, said that he had come to vote for Medvedev.

"It doesn't make sense to vote any other way," he said. "You can only follow the ruler. The other candidates are just clowns. . . . You need to face reality."

A few hours after the polls closed, Medvedev appeared on an outdoor stage near Red Square. Putin, who has long nurtured Medvedev's career, stood at his side. Thousands of people, many of them members of pro-Kremlin youth groups, thronged before them, jubilant and soaked to the skin.

"We can keep moving down the path set by Mr. Putin," Medvedev told the crowd. "Together we are moving forward. Together we will win."

Medvedev faced three opponents: Gennady Zyuganov, leader of the Communist Party; Vladimir Zhirinovsky, an ultranationalist figure known for controversial rhetoric; and Andrei Bogdanov, a relatively unknown representative of a liberal party.

None of those candidates were given anywhere close to the coverage showered upon Medvedev by the state media. Russian and European election monitors criticized the elections for biased campaign coverage.

Medvedev is a longtime Putin acquaintance who followed the president's path from Leningrad State University all the way to the halls of government in Moscow. He has been sold to voters as the status quo candidate, and so far he has played the part perfectly.

In appearances across the country, Medvedev lavished praise on Putin's eight years in office and carefully avoided striking any policy notes that might clash with the president's agenda. He smiled cheerfully at Putin's side even as he was mocked in cartoons and street corner jokes as the puppet of a powerful master. (A sample joke: Putin and Medvedev sit in a restaurant. Putin: "I'll have the steak." Waiter: "And what about the vegetable?" Putin: "He'll take the steak too.")

But analysts warn that all bets would be off once Medvedev was installed in the Kremlin. He takes office May 7.

Many observers believe that Medvedev has simply been playing along, keeping up the respectful deference expected by his mentor and waiting for his chance to seize the reins. They warn that destabilizing clashes could break out as the two men scrap for power.

"Mr. Medvedev will certainly play his own game," said Alexei Mukhin, head of the Center for Political Information. "He's bound to change inside himself, just as Putin changed when he assumed power. I'm not at all convinced Putin and Medvedev will manage to preserve good relations.

"No matter how weak Medvedev looks now," he said, "as soon as the doors shut and he's inside, he'll shore up. That's the Kremlin law."

Putin came into office as a virtual unknown, anointed by former President Boris N. Yeltsin. Like Medvedev, Putin's ascent to the Kremlin was attended by whispers that he would never own the job or manage to shake the long shadow of his predecessor.

Russians scoff at that memory now. Putin quickly emerged as a strongman who cannily played the Kremlin clans against one another to consolidate power. Today he is revered, epitomizing stability in the Russian imagination to the degree that many voters seem almost reflexively fearful of his departure from office.

Medvedev and Putin have their differences. Whereas Putin was a former KGB agent, Medvedev is a onetime law professor, businessman and gas executive.

Putin stared at the world through the flinty gaze of a disciplined spy, occasionally punctuated with a sardonic, closed-lip smile. He donned military uniforms and struck manly poses for photographers: shooting pistols, flying combat planes or practicing judo.

Medvedev, by contrast, was photographed this month with the members of his favorite band, Deep Purple. The presumed heir to the presidency grinned goofily among the rock stars, arms thrust forward and two thumbs cocked skyward.

While Putin has been tagged with a reputation for belligerence toward the West, Medvedev is perceived as a slightly softer, more liberal leader.

But Medvedev, currently deputy prime minister, remains a largely untested character. Aside from representing Russia at events such as World Economic Forum meetings, he has virtually no experience with foreign affairs.

Stanislav Belkovsky, president of the National Strategy Institute, contends that Medvedev's international reputation as a moderate was a key reason that he was tapped to take over. His main purpose, Belkovsky says, is to put a friendlier, more outwardly liberal face on the Kremlin to burnish Russia's image among Western governments and corporations.

At home, Belkovsky predicted, the squeeze on democracy carried out under Putin will continue.

"To the West, the language will be softened. Many of the politicians in the West will actually believe he's a liberal alternative to Putin," Belkovsky said. "But as far as domestic policy is concerned, the crackdown on the media and on what remains of the opposition will be even harder."

Belkovsky had invited reporters to Moscow's House of Journalists last week to unveil his new book about Medvedev, titled "Little Evil" in a cheeky reference to the candidate's diminutive height. The day before his book launch, Belkovsky received a call from the House of Journalists. Your event has been canceled, he said they told him. There was no explanation, he said.

"I'm quite sure that if it were a book on Putin himself, it wouldn't have been canceled," he said. Calls to the House of Journalists were not answered.

Intrigue unfolds out of sight here, leaving observers to scrounge for small details about the future relationship between Putin and Medvedev. So minor are the signals from which power shifts must be inferred that lately wristwatches have been discussed.

Putin wears his watch on the right wrist; Medvedev on the left. Kremlin watchers say some of the United Russia party faithful have begun to switch their watches from right wrist to left to signal loyalty to the new chief.

megan.stack@latimes.com

Times staff writer Sergei L. Loiko contributed to this report.

Despite Spotlight, Putin's Heir Still Shadowy

Medvedev Assured of Win, but Many Russians Unsure What Will Follow

By Peter Finn
Washington Post Foreign Service
Sunday, March 2, 2008; A01

ST. PETERSBURG -- At the age of 23, Dmitry Medvedev went to a cathedral in this city, then called Leningrad, and was baptized into the Russian Orthodox Church. Even in the relatively liberal environment of Mikhail Gorbachev's Soviet Union, it was a quiet act of defiance for a postgraduate law student whose prospects depended on not straying too far from the ruling ideology.

"I think it marked the beginning of a new life for me," said Medvedev, 42, in a recent interview with the Russian magazine Itogi.

A year later, in 1989, Medvedev campaigned for Anatoly Sobchak, one of his law professors at Leningrad State University, who was running as an independent candidate for the Congress of People's Deputies and calling for an end to the Communist Party's monopoly on power.

"He was very young, and it was extremely dangerous for his future," Lyudmila Narusova, Sobchak's widow and now a member of the Russian parliament's upper house, said of Medvedev in an interview. "It could have ruined his entire future career, because nobody knew who was going to win. Nevertheless, Medvedev willingly chose this path."

Nineteen years later, Medvedev is about to become Russia's third president, succeeding Vladimir Putin, who has ensured the victory in Sunday's election simply by blessing Medvedev's candidacy. But after a heavily stage-managed campaign, bereft of authentic competition, many Russians wonder whether a Medvedev administration heralds a break with the rule of his popular predecessor or a caretaker government that will consolidate the centralization of power Putin engineered.

Will the democratic dreams of the young Medvedev resurface to challenge the policies he has helped implement as the sidekick of a president who has crushed political pluralism? Or will they emerge again only in speeches, never in practice?

"After the campaign, I can say I know nothing about who he is," said Georgy Bovt, editor in chief of Profil magazine. "He is intelligent, well-bred, educated -- that's all I can say. How is he going to manage the country? We don't know."

Medvedev's campaign declined an interview request. The candidate has been cocooned inside his campaign, taking few questions from anyone outside a select pool of journalists filing uniformly glowing reports.

Medvedev actually claims to have campaigned for only one day in the past two months; the rest of his appearances, he said, were part of his work as first deputy prime minister. The Central Election Commission, explaining the overwhelming coverage of Medvedev on state television compared with the scant attention paid to his opponents, which appeared to violate electoral rules requiring equal access to news media, said the channels weren't covering a candidate but a government minister.

A former law professor, Medvedev has begun to articulate a reverence for the rule of law, which human rights organizations say was applied very unevenly during Putin's tenure. He has also said he will tackle corruption, which Putin failed to do in any comprehensive way.

"We're talking about freedom in all its forms -- personal freedom, economic freedom and, in the end, the freedom of self-expression," Medvedev said in a campaign speech. "One of the key elements in our work in the next four years will be ensuring the independence of the legal system from the executive and legislative branches of power."

But Medvedev's essentially unopposed candidacy is built on Putin's increasingly autocratic system, which has cleared the landscape of any troublesome opponents.

Putin, too, spoke of the primacy of the law in his early years in power and infused his speeches with pledges of fealty to democratic values. Biography, however, proved a better guide to his impulses: A former Soviet spy, he was distrustful of political competition. And if Medvedev has had any concerns about the centralization of power under Putin, he has never voiced them publicly.

The likelihood that Putin will become Medvedev's prime minister has led some to predict that the next president will be a soft-spoken puppet.

"Medvedev will be the glove on the hand of Putin's group," said Dmitry Oreshkin, an independent political analyst in Moscow. "The parliament is loyal to Putin. The security services are loyal to Putin. The mass media is Putin's. Any independent step by Medvedev will be considered a declaration of war on the current elite, and they will strike back."

Others, however, see a new beginning.

"Behind his external intelligence and mildness, there is a very strong character," Narusova said. "He is very purposeful. It's ridiculous to hear that Putin is going to rule and that Medvedev is going to fulfill his orders.

"I would like to note," she continued, "that from his entire circle, which consists of both hawks and liberals, Putin picked the most liberal figure."

Medvedev has never served in the military and, unlike many of Putin's other intimates, has no background in the security services. He speaks of a Russia that is great and demands respect, but with none of the slashing vim of a Putin speech.

"The university, with all its traditions, is his cradle," said Igor Bunin, head of the Center for Political Technologies in Moscow. "His challenge is to lead Russia into the group of civilized countries. This idea is more important to Medvedev than the greatness of the country alone."

Medvedev was born in September 1965 to intellectuals with modest places in the Soviet hierarchy. "Both received degrees with honors, but their careers somehow didn't take off," he has recalled of his parents. His father was a physics professor, and his mother taught Russian as a foreign language.

Medvedev attended a local public school in Leningrad, where he met his future wife, Svetlana, in seventh grade. They now have a 12-year-old son, Ilya.

Medvedev's memories of the Soviet past, as he told Itogi magazine, include his dreams of getting a pair of Levi's or Wrangler bluejeans or a copy of "The Wall," by the rock band Pink Floyd. He remains a fan of the kind of driving, grandiose rock performed by groups such as Led Zeppelin and Deep Purple. His latest passion is his iPhone.

In 1982, he entered Leningrad State University's law school -- traditionally a path to the security services, the diplomatic service and the Soviet ministries. Other graduates of the school include Soviet leader Vladimir Lenin and Putin, who was recruited by the KGB in his senior year.

Medvedev, however, pursued an academic career. He "was an A student from the beginning to the end," said Marina Mitina, a former fellow student. "My other impression of him was his modesty. Modest, but with great self-confidence."

Medvedev was one of three students in his year invited to study at the postgraduate level and become a professor. "He had quite a reserved and strict manner of teaching," said Sergey Belov, a former student in Medvedev's class on Roman law. "There were very few jokes in his classes, partly because of the subject, but to a large extent it was connected with his own nature. He was very demanding."

Putin and Medvedev met through Sobchak and formed a bond that Putin later described as "comradeship." He calls Medvedev "Dima," the familiar diminutive of Dmitry.

In 1990, while still with the KGB, Putin became an assistant to the president of the university, responsible for international outreach. At that time, Sobchak was chairman of the Leningrad City Council. He became the first mayor of St. Petersburg in 1991, and both Putin and Medvedev worked for their former professor, sharing a desk and managing the city's committee for foreign liaison.

In 1996, after Sobchak lost a mayoral election, Putin went to Moscow and began his remarkable ascent in the administration of President Boris Yeltsin, first heading the FSB, the domestic successor to the KGB, and then becoming prime minister.

When Yeltsin resigned on Dec. 31, 1999, Putin became acting president. He was elected to his first four-year term in March 2000.

In 1999, Putin, then prime minister, brought Medvedev to Moscow as his deputy chief of staff. Medvedev later managed Putin's first election campaign, became a deputy chief of the presidential staff and was appointed chairman of Gazprom, the energy company noted for its bloat and insider deals. In 2003, he became Putin's chief of staff.

Under Medvedev's chairmanship, Gazprom has become a state behemoth with profits last year of $25 billion. But the natural gas exporter's turnaround has not been without controversy. The company has been accused of serving as a political bludgeon to intimidate Russia's neighbors and of strong-arming its way into potentially highly lucrative foreign-controlled enterprises such as Royal Dutch Shell's $22 billion oil and natural gas project in Russia's Far East.

Some observers, however, believe Medvedev acted as the state's legal caretaker at Gazprom -- an executive who scrutinized the fine print in contracts but did not set policy.

"Gazprom was always Putin's personal company," said Vladimir Milov, head of the Institute of Energy and a former deputy energy minister under Putin. "Putin, not Medvedev, decided everything, and to a very detailed extent."

For all the positions he has held, including as legal counsel for a timber firm in the 1990s, Medvedev remains a man of modest means, according to the recent income declaration he was required to make as a presidential candidate. He listed his assets as $113,000 in savings, an apartment in Moscow and a Volkswagen Golf registered in his wife's name.

Medvedev emerged as a potential successor to Putin when he was appointed first deputy prime minister in November 2005 and given the task of reforming such key troubled sectors as health care, education, agriculture and housing. State-controlled media have portrayed his management of what are called the national projects as an unqualified success.

But in a lengthy report on the Putin years, Milov, the energy expert, and Boris Nemtsov, an opposition leader, dismissed the projects as "the replacement of systematic reform by random, one-off, modest injections of cash which do not really solve anything."

None of this has been discussed in the campaign, for the simple reason that Medvedev didn't debate any of his opponents. The three of them squared off on television without him -- at 7 in the morning.

East: The 'Leader for Life' Governance Model

By Christopher Walker

Russia - First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev President Vladimir Putin (R) attend the all-Russian Congress of the Councils of Municipalities of the Constituent Territories in Moscow, 23Oct2007
Handing over the reins
(epa)
With Russia's presidential election on March 2, "Operation Successor," the Kremlin's finely orchestrated plan to hand power to a dependable ally of Vladimir Putin, is reaching its crowning moment.





Two months ago, on December 10, Putin endorsed soft-spoken and uncharismatic First Deputy Prime Minster Dmitry Medvedev as his chosen successor. The next day, Medvedev made it known that he would support Putin becoming Russia's prime minister. Then, a week later, Putin completed the circle by agreeing to become prime minister if the 42-year-old Medvedev were elected president, an outcome that is effectively guaranteed in Russia's tightly controlled political system.

Putin had for some time coyly hinted that he would retain an influential role for himself, indicating on November 13 -- before December's parliamentary elections -- that a strong performance by the pro-Kremlin Unified Russia party would give him the "moral right" to keep a grip on power after he reached his constitutionally mandated two-term limit in 2008. Unified Russia unsurprisingly won a crushing victory on December 2 in what observers deemed to be patently unfair elections. This elaborate political choreography seems designed to craft a new and enduring role for Putin at the pinnacle of Russia's politics.

In his presidential news conference on February 14, 2008, Putin indicated his view on the matter, saying, "The premiership is not a transitional post." Speaking of the goals he set for Russia's development through the year 2020, Putin added, "If I can see that in this capacity [of prime minister] I can fulfill these goals, I will work as long as possible."

The Kremlin's succession rollout is noteworthy for its meticulousness, but Putin's project to retain political dominance represents part of a broader pattern in which the leaders of a regionally diverse and strategically relevant set of states are attempting to secure unchecked power. By pushing opposing voices to the sidelines and undercutting independent institutions, these rulers are doggedly pursuing a deeply illiberal model of governance: the leader for life.

Dodgy Referendums

A critical mass of "leaders for life" is entrenched in the former Soviet Union, where the prevailing method for retaining power has been the orchestration of referendums to lift constitutionally prescribed term limits.

For instance, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev, who has ruled that country since 1990, pushed through constitutional changes last August that exempt him from term limits. He had already extended his term through a referendum in 1995. On August 18, 2007, Nazarbaev's party won nearly 90 percent of the vote in parliamentary elections, sweeping all remaining opposition forces from the country's legislature. The constitutional changes in 2007 paved the way for Nazarbaev to remain in power indefinitely.

In Belarus, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka, who first came to power in 1994, engineered a vote in October 2004 that removed presidential term limits. Lukashenka went on to receive 83 percent of the vote in April 2006 elections that the OSCE's Office of Democratic Institutions and Human Rights deemed neither free nor fair. With restraints no longer in place, the Belarusian leader has signaled his intention to run again in 2011.

In Tajikistan, President Emomali Rahmon in 2003 pushed through a referendum that amended the constitution and opened the door for him to remain in power until 2020. Rahmon was head of state from 1992 to 1994, when he was elected president. A constitutional change in 1999, when he was reelected, increased presidential terms from five to seven years. In the 2006 presidential election, he was credited with 80 percent of the vote.

Uzbekistan's constitution currently states that the president is permitted to serve only two seven-year terms. President Islam Karimov, who assumed power as first secretary of the Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republic's Communist Party in 1989, was elected president of independent Uzbekistan in 1992. In 1995, Karimov extended his presidential term until 2000. He was reelected in 2000 for another five-year term, but prolonged it to seven years through a national referendum in January 2002.

While his peers in post-Soviet states have at least made the effort to hold managed referendums that would extend their terms, Karimov dispensed with such legal niceties and in December 2007 stood again for reelection, ignoring the constitutional prohibition. The Uzbek leader, whose regime has expunged independent news media and civil society, faced no genuine opposition in the poll (in fact, all three "challengers" endorsed his candidacy). In the end, he was credited with 90 percent of the vote.

Keeping It In The Family

Other leader-for-life systems feature a dynastic twist. Former Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev cleared the path for his son, Ilham, to carry on his legacy once the aging president proved too ill to rule himself. A 2002 referendum altered the presidential succession process so that the prime minister, rather than the speaker of parliament, would become acting president if the president resigned or became incapacitated. Ilham Aliyev was named prime minister soon thereafter. As Heydar Aliyev's health declined further in 2003, he withdrew his candidacy for reelection, allowing his son to coast to victory with 76 percent of the vote.

This phenomenon can be found beyond the former Soviet Union. In Syria, family rule has apparently been institutionalized. In Egypt and Libya, where the sitting leaders' tenures are measured in decades rather than years, conditions are also ripe for handing the presidency from father to son. In Cuba, a fraternal handoff of power is being completed.

Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe, in power for nearly three decades, has presided over one of the most catastrophic societal implosions in recent history, and is now dragging what remains of his country into an economic, political, and social morass. According to government reports, Zimbabwe's annual inflation rate reached a mind-boggling 66,000 percent in December 2007, although some observers believe that this figure may understate the true magnitude of the problem. Mugabe, who turns 84 on February 21, is looking to secure a sixth term in office in elections to be held on March 29.

In December, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez sought to push through a referendum on a new constitution that would have dramatically expanded his powers and done away with presidential term limits. This initiative was narrowly defeated. Chavez said after the vote, however, that his plans were only derailed "for now" and that his proposals to reform the constitution remained "alive." Despite growing public dissatisfaction with his rule, Chavez has stated his ambition to remain in power until 2050, when he will be 95 years old.

In Russia, the Kremlin's current succession gambit has largely adhered to the letter of the constitution, but the document's spirit is certainly being tested. Dmitry Medvedev is poised to assume the presidency, while Vladimir Putin will swap his current post for that of prime minister. The net result of this managed transfer of power is that there has been no meaningful debate of policy issues among a diverse range of political forces. The Russian public remains disconnected from the small elite that determines who holds and uses power.

Such controlled and insular politics clearly have profound drawbacks. The leader-for-life system creates a zero-sum, winner-takes-all approach to governing. And with unchecked power comes unchecked corruption. In fact, "hyper-corruption" is the soft underbelly of this model, in which accountability and transparency are all but nonexistent. It is no surprise that all of the countries in question are trapped at the bottom of Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index. For example, despite Putin's ambition to create a "dictatorship of law" and the prominence of anticorruption initiatives on the Kremlin's policy agenda, the scourge of corruption in Russia has grown in recent years. INDEM, a policy institute in Moscow, estimates that bribery and graft in Russia are now at the level of some $300 billion per year.

The oppressive dominance of the leaders for life smothers the institutions -- an independent judiciary, free media, and political opposition, among others -- that are essential not only for tackling massive corruption but also for improving the quality of public policy, thus preventing meaningful reform in the spheres of education, health, and public infrastructure.

For all of its obvious flaws, however, the leader-for-life phenomenon may have some staying power, especially in resource-rich states such as Russia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan, where otherwise brittle regimes are cushioned by oil prices hovering around $100 per barrel. The fall of the Berlin Wall and the wave of democratization that washed across much of the globe in the last generation seemed to signal that life-presidencies had been cast onto the ash heap of history. Their survival suggests that this retrograde form of governance is more resilient than previously imagined.

(Christopher Walker is director of studies at Freedom House.)

Putin's Likely Successor, Pledging Support for Serbia, Signs Pipeline Deal

By Danica Kirka
Associated Press
Tuesday, February 26, 2008; A11

BELGRADE, Serbia, Feb. 25 -- Russia's likely next president, visiting the Serbian capital, pledged Monday to support Serbia in its showdown with the West over Kosovo's declaration of independence.

Dmitry Medvedev, chairman of Russia's state-controlled energy giant Gazprom, presided over the signing of a deal potentially worth $1.5 billion to route a 550-mile natural gas pipeline through Serbia.

Although that agreement was at the center of his visit, he also criticized Kosovo's declaration of independence from Serbia as well as Western support for the move. Kosovo's breaking away "absolutely" violates international rules, he said.

"Serbia needs support now," Medvedev said.

Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica on Monday demanded that the United States rescind its recognition of Kosovo and warned that "there will be no stability" until the "fake state" is annulled.

With Serbia as a political and economic partner in the Balkans, Russia has a loyal ally in the heart of Europe, reaffirming its position as a key global player. The pipeline deal also may boost Russia's influence as energy supplier to the continent.

Moscow's control of key energy routes has raised fears that it could use supply as political leverage -- rewarding countries that support its policies and threatening hardship for those that do not.

Medvedev, however, said the project, known as South Stream, and others pending with Serbia "form the foundation of energy stability for all of Europe in the future."

Medvedev is President Vladimir Putin's chosen successor. Opinion polls show him the overwhelming favorite to win Russia's presidential election March 2.

Few details about the pipeline deal were released. Analysts suggest that Serbia is giving away some of its most valuable assets to Russia at bargain-basement prices.

Medvedev also toured Serbia's oil refinery in Pancevo, just outside Belgrade, where he said that a deal to buy Serbia's state oil company, NIS, will be signed soon.

Russia has offered $600 million for a controlling stake in NIS and $730 million to modernize the run-down company. The offering price for a controlling stake, analysts say, is about one-fifth the company's market value.

Some Serbians do not welcome closer ties with Moscow, however, citing Putin's autocratic style and the refugee status that Russia granted to the widow of former president Slobodan Milosevic. Mirjana Markovic and the couple's son, Marko, are both wanted in Serbia for embezzling millions of dollars. Milosevic died in 2005.

But ties among the two countries' Orthodox churches remain strong, a point Medvedev highlighted when he joined President Boris Tadic for a visit to St. Sava Temple, the largest Orthodox Christian church in the Balkans.

The two lit candles in the Christian Orthodox tradition and were greeted by a local priest, the Rev. Luka Novakovic. "We see your arrival here as support to the Serbian nation and Serbian Orthodox Church at the time when there aren't many states and nations who support us and stand by us," Novakovic said.

Russian Candidate Denounces Kosovo

By C. J. CHIVERS

MOSCOW — Dmitri A. Medvedev, Russia’s first deputy prime minister and the presumptive successor to President Vladimir V. Putin, on Monday committed the Kremlin to long-term support in backing Serbia against an independent Kosovo.

Mr. Medvedev appeared in Belgrade, the Serbian capital, with Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica. It was Mr. Medvedev’s first significant foreign-policy appearance since he became the front-runner for Russia’s highest office, and he restated Mr. Putin’s position and made clear that it would be his own.

“We proceed from the understanding that Serbia is a single state with its jurisdiction spanning its entire territory and we will stick to this principled stance in the future,” he said, in remarks reported widely on news broadcasts in Russia.

“Serbia,” he added, faces “conditions of illegitimate actions to unilaterally recognize Kosovo.”

The United States reacted quickly to Mr. Medvedev’s statements. restating its own support for Kosovo, and made clear that in Washington’s view, its break from Serbia was final.

“We are going to continue to try to work with both the Russians and the Serbs on this but I think that it ought to be clear to everybody at this point that Kosovo is never going to be a part of Serbia again,” Tom Casey, a State Department spokesman, told reporters, according to the Associated Press.

Mr. Kostunica said on Monday that state-sponsored protests against the Kosovo’s declaration would continue until foreign governments that had recognized Kosovo changed their position.

Kosovo, a province of Serbia that had been under United Nations administration since 1999, declared its independence on Feb. 17. Russia had long objected to Kosovo’s intention to seek independence and has called the declaration both illegal and a threat to international stability.

The Kremlin has also complained bitterly that Western governments have recognized Kosovo and warned that it could increase its support for separatist regions in Georgia and Moldova, both of which have regions outside of their control that received Russian support.

In his brief visit, Mr. Medvedev struck notes emphasizing the traditional and continuing ties between Serbia and Russia. He visited St. Sava’s cathedral in Belgrade with President Boris Tadic, and an oil refinery as well, and pledged to invest in Serbia’s energy sector.

Mr. Medvedev, who is also chairman of Gazprom, Russia’s natural gas monopoly, also signed an agreement to build a section of the South Stream gas pipeline through Serbia, which will carry Russian gas through the Balkans to the Mediterranean Sea.

Mr. Medvedev has used his presidential campaign to cast himself as a progressive who wants to promote freedom in Russia. His speeches have raised questions about whether he might soften some of Russia’s image and ease some of the state’s grip on political life. His remarks on Monday, however, re-emphasized that many of his views and public positions overlap with those of his primary sponsor, Mr. Putin.

At point, for example, he placed blame for the unrest that has followed Kosovo’s declaration, and any future repercussions, on the West. “It is absolutely obvious that the crisis that has happened and is the responsibility of those who have made the illegal decision will unfortunately have long-term consequences for peace on the European continent,” he said.