Story of Double Agent in Al Qaeda

This is really interesting.

This link has an excerpt in Salon from the memoirs of a jihadist turned French spy.

Iraq Study Group Recommends Withdrawal

The Iraq Study Group that is the subject of intense speculation with regard to its "outsourced" solution to the cancer on President Bush's presidency, the War in Iraq, has decided to recommend no specific deadline for withdrawal, but to make it clear to Iraqis that Americans will leave Iraq within the near term.

Iraqi Politicians Disagree about Hostage Release

Iraq's minister for higher education said that a number of people kidnapped the other day from a ministry building were tortured and killed. He says 70 are still missing. A number were taken to Shiite eastern Baghdad.

Prime Minister Maliki disagrees, saying that the numbers kidnapped totaled around 40 and almost all of those 40 were released.

But after the release of large numbers of kidnapped persons by the Shiite militias or gangs that were holding them, is it any wonder that Americans complain that the Maliki government doesn't do as much as it can about sectarian militia activity?

It seems to be within Maliki's power to tell at least some Shiite militias what to do some of the time.

U.S. Soldiers Kill Al Qaeda Militants in Iraq

U.S. soldiers killed 9 Al Qaeda members in a rural area south of Baghdad and captured 9 more. Waterboarding, anyone?

1,000-plus Iraqi soldiers supported by U.S. forces launched a campaign north of Baghdad.

Somalis Fight for Hezbollah in Lebanon . . .

The lede from the New York Times article:

UNITED NATIONS, Nov. 14 — More than 700 Islamic militants from Somalia traveled to Lebanon in July to fight alongside Hezbollah in its war against Israel, a United Nations report says. The militia in Lebanon returned the favor by providing training and — through its patrons Iran and Syria — weapons to the Islamic alliance struggling for control of Somalia, it adds.

. . . As Somalia's Islamists Helped by Outsiders

A confidential UN report states that Iran, Syria, Libya, Egypt and Hezbollah helped the Somali Islamists who are gradually taking power away from the so-called "transitional" government in southern Somalia after capturing Mogadishu.

Iran Nuclear Programs Proceeding

The IAEA has tested nuclear waste found in Iran and it has revealed the presence of highly enriched uranium and plutonium, evidence that Iraq's nuclear weapons efforts are proceeding apace and that it might have two such programs: one for uranium and one for plutonium, much as North Korea is believed to have.

Mass Kidnapping in Baghdad

As many as 55 people were kidnapped from a Ministry of Higher Education building today, leading to arrests of high-ranking police officers possibly culpable.

Abizaid Pressures Maliki to Disarm Militias

U.S. General John Abizaid met with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and told him that Iraq needs to disarm militias and prove it is doing so.

And in a turn from the timetable debate in the United States, Abizaid asked Maliki to give him a timetable for Iraqi forces to take charge of Iraqi security. While General Casey has said it would take 12-18 months for Iraqis to take over, Maliki has said he would crush opposition in 6 months if he had full control over Iraqi forces.

Blair on Middle East Strategy

Tony Blair made a major speech on middle east policy, including negotiating a settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian issue and pressuring Iran to stop exerting its influence to unsettle the region.

Is Kabul Better?

Everyone talks about how Kabul is so much better, security-wise, than the rest of Afghanistan.

This article talks about how things really aren't that good in Kabul itself.

Pakistani Link to Suicide Attacks in Afghanistan

Afghan officials claim there are ties to Pakistan in every suicide bombing in Afghanistan. It is part of their contention with Pakistan that the anti-government forces in Afghanistan are really rooted in Pakistan.

The truth of course is that the source of anti-Afghan government forces are rooted in Pashtunistan, that ethnic region that is partly in Afghanistan and partly in Pakistan and is home of the Pashtuns. That many Pashtuns from Afghanistan are refugees in Pakistan after decades of war clearly makes turning them into radical fighters or even suicide bombers that much easier. Refugees from war have that rootless, idealized sense of loss of homeland that I'm sure makes them manipulable by people like the Taliban movement, which is currently stronger and better able to organize in Pakistan than in Afghanistan.

These are the Stakes

Oversight of the Bush Administration, or not? Oversight under the Republican Congress has withered and interbranch checking has failed.

If you want those in political power to require the Administration to account for itself and why it has failed in Iraq, vote the Democrats into power in Congress.

There is no simpler way to say it.

Balad Massacre

Today's L.A. Times recalls a sickening two-day October massacre in Balad, north of Baghdad.

Hatred building between local Sunnis and Shiites turned into murderous rage that surprised the Americans posted nearby.

Read the account for yourself. It's something of a microcosm of what's going on all over Iraq.

Iraqi Interior Ministry Charges 57 With Corruption

For the first time, the Iraqi Interior Ministry has charged members of its Shiite-oriented forces, including high-ranking officers, with torturing Iraqi Sunnis. 57 were implicated, but only 55 are now being charged.

Apparently the documentation very clearly indicates that torture was occurring at a Baghdad prison known as "Site 4."

Problematic units included the special police commandos and the public order brigade.

This is seen as a test of the power of new Interior Minister Jawad al-Bolani, who replaced Bayan Jabr, widely seen as having transformed the Interior Ministry into a haven for Shiite militiamen. Bolani is independent, but not politically connected enough to remove those with ties to the militia-linked Shiite government.

One thing that seems to have worked is that Bolani set up committees to find evidence of human rights violations and uses this evidence to move forward with removing violators from positions in his agency.

One interesting angle both the Washington Post and New York Times take on the story is the United States's recent threats to withdraw financial support of the Iraqi government because U.S. law makes it illegal to have dealings with governments that allow gross violations of human rights to go unpunished. If Bolani can come up with pictures and other evidence they can bring to the Americans of human rights violations, the Maliki government has to cooperate with his steps to remove the violators.

If you ever wonder if the so-called Leahy Law was effective, there's your proof.

Khalilzad to Leave

News reports state that United States Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad is likely to leave his post in the coming months.

On Saddam Hussein's Imminent Demise

Today we learned what we already knew: that Saddam Hussein would be sentenced to death for the murderous misrule of his fellow Iraqis.

Many people consider a death sentence obvious justice for a man who committed genocide. Others are against any execution on principle.

I, frankly, wish Saddam would have received the death penalty for the murderous repression of the majority of his people rather than just the Anfal campaign against the Kurds. But, well, I suppose Saddam probably could only be tried for one campaign of genocide at a time.

I favor Saddam's execution for the same reason Niccolo Macchiavelli said that new rulers of states should execute former ruling families.

The execution of Saddam Hussein will remove the hope of Saddam and his supporters that as a result of post-American upheaval he might return to power or political prominence in Iraq (or a Gelbian Sunni mini-state) over the next decade or so.

Eliminating a rallying point for revanchists and end a threat to Iraqi unity is a good reason to go forward with the execution of Saddam Hussein. Once Saddam is executed, I hope that an bloody and ignominious chapter of middle east politics can be closed.

Saddam Sentenced to Death

Here are the papers on the Saddam Hussein death verdict:

In the Washington Post:

• King Sneer: Saddam Hussein Keeps Up the Drama, Right Into the Final Act, by Philip Kennicott;
• Reactions to Verdict Reflect Shifts in Iraqis' Fortunes, by Sudarsan Raghavan and Salih Dehema; and
• Bush Applauds Hussein Verdict, by Peter Baker.

In the New York Times:

• Hussein Is Sentenced to Death by Hanging; by John F. Burns and Kirk Semple;
• Bush Trumpets Iraq Verdict to Rally Support, by Adam Nagourney and Jim Rutenberg;
• Mideast Expected the Verdict but Doubts Whether It’s Fair, by Hassan M. Fattah;
• In Iraq, Shiite Joy and a Boost for Prime Minister, by Sabrina Tavernise;
• In a Divided Iraq, Reaction to Saddam Death Sentence Conforms to Sectarian Lines, also by Sabrina Tavernise; and
• Hussein Trial Was Flawed but Reasonably Fair, and Verdict Was Justified, Legal Experts Say, by Julia Preston.

In the L.A. Times:

• Verdict Stirs Fury, Praise, Among Iraqis, by Louise Roug;
• In Dujayl, relief at last for a family of victims; by Ken Ellingwood and Ibraheem Dujayli; and
• An angry hometown crowd, also by Louise Roug.

Today's Bloomberg wire report:

• Iraqi Shiites, Kurds Rejoice on Verdict; Sunnis Mourn.

From Reuters:

• IRAQ: Hear Our Voices – Saddam faces death, but victims' suffering continues;
• Iraq starts to lift curfew after Saddam verdict, by Alastair Macdonald; and
• Europeans urge Iraq not to execute Saddam, from IRIN.

Problems in Afghanistan

Drawing on a CIA report reflecting Afghan popular frustration with Hamid Karzai's weak government, Sunday's New York Times has a review of the problems facing Afghanistan, including:

WEAK GOVERNMENT

• Weak leadership by President Karzai;
• The Afghan government's inability to project its power outside Kabul;
• Failure to deliver on reconstruction promises;
• Failure to deliver services to the countryside;
• Perceptions of corruption;
• Corrupt local bigshots and bureaucrats between the central government and powerful village councils that effectively govern many people in the countryside;
• Weak military forces;
• Police forces that will have to be built up, a very expensive task; and
• Generalized weakness.

TALIBAN RESURGENCE

• Decreased overall security;
• Resurgence of Taliban forces;
• Increasing numbers of Taliban attacks;
• Increasing numbers of roadside bombings;
• Suicide attacks, a tactic apparently taken from Iraq;
• The Taliban's continued ability to use Pakistan as a haven:
• The Taliban's increasing support within Afghanistan;
• Coerced Taliban support;
• Opportunism and adventure-seeking by military-age men who join Taliban forces;
• Taliban promises to protect opium crops against government eradication efforts; and
• Resource-sharing by drug smugglers and the Taliban.

Reports from Afghanistan, whether from CIA sources or press sources, consistently say that the war in Afghanistan is difficult and the government is not performing well. The United States is apparently working to put more money and focus onto efforts in Afghanistan, through development of intelligence reports that favor this position -- reasonably, I might add. I hope the U.S. is able to get the forces up and ready to reach the Afghan countryside.

Optimism after North Korea

Writing in today’s Washington Post, Joseph Nye reminds us that we don’t need to give up on halting international proliferation simply because North Korea built a barely functional nuclear weapon of some kind.

Nye notes that during the 1970s, a similar nuclear "breakout" moment occurred, but the NPT and related proliferation regimes did not collapse. Through assiduous diplomacy, the United States pushed the individual countries who were pressuring the proliferation regime to stop their anti-regime activities and arranged a strengthening and updating of the nuclear proliferation regime, the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group. And most importantly, the United States extended its nuclear umbrella to clearly cover some of its most vulnerable allies, like South Korea and Japan.

Nye says that the U.S. can reaffirm its commitment to Japanese and South Korean security and ask everyone to recommit to international proliferation institutions as the United States had the world do in the seventies. Nye makes it seem that, with work, these are achievable.

Nye also wants the United States to support two IAEA initiatives:

• Increased funding for the IAEA and its inspection activities;
• An international enriched uranium “bank” for countries that promise not to develop indigenous nuclear enrichment programs.

As for North Korea itself, Nye believes that integration is better than sanctions. Of all the things that Nye recommends, that’s the only one I can’t agree with. The North Korean regime would be able to use economic integration to strengthen itself without freeing its people, using the Chinese example.

If anything, the North Koreans’ recent return to nuclear negotiations has given us a hypothesis we really should test – whether financial sanctions are the lever we can use to pressure the Kim regime. If the Kim regime doesn’t back down after the upcoming negotiations, we should try to get China to have its banks limit North Korean access to the international financial system. That pressure, in addition to American limits on North Korean finances, might be enough to push the North Koreans to give up their nuclear programs.

If that fails, then maybe we’ll try Nye’s prescription for economic integration. Only so much optimism for me.

George Will’s Scorecard

Races to watch, per George Will:

The races of the following House members:

• Rob Simmons (R-CT);
• Congresswoman Nancy Johnson (R-CT);
• Congressman Chris Shays (R-CT);
• Congressman Jim Gerlach (R-PA);
• Congressman Curt Weldon (R-PA);
• Congressman Clay Shaw (R-FL); and
• the open House race for Colorado’s 7th District.

Will noted the following governor’s races:

• Michigan;
• Colorado; and
• Minnesota.

I’ll follow up after the election.

Engagement with Iran

From today’s Washington Post:

Secretary of State Condoleezzz Rice offered to join personally in high-level international negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program once the Iranians suspend uranium enrichment for the duration of the talks. That offer has - at her request - been conveyed to Tehran by European negotiators with no results, involved diplomats [told Jim Hoagland].

NATO and Detainees

Don Bosco writes in tomorrow’s Washington Post that NATO needs to take more responsibility in Afghanistan for capturing, detaining and obtaining intelligence from detainees.

Rather than leaving the handling of detainees to the United States, because it’s willing to get its hands dirty, or to Afghan forces, because they’re nominally in control of the country, NATO should get involved to show American forces how, in concrete ways, detainee operations and intelligence gathering can be successful without engage in the worst of America’s excesses.

If that’s not possible, maybe the rest of the West will have to admit that the way the United States and Israel handle enemy prisoners is more reasonable than they have claimed to date.

Rumsfeld to Stay or Go?

Saturday's Army Times and related publications are carrying an editorial stating that Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld should go. The editorial says he has lost credibility:

Rumsfeld has lost credibility with the uniformed leadership, with the troops, with Congress and with the public at large. His strategy has failed, and his ability to lead is compromised. And although the blame for our failures in Iraq rests with the secretary, it will be the troops who bear its brunt.

And the editorial couldn't be more starkly in conflict with President Bush, who rather than hint that Rumsfeld might go after the elections, reaffirmed this week that Rumsfeld will stay until the end of his presidency.

Now, if you don't want men like Donald Rumsfeld in charge of the Department of Defense, there is only one election to vote in: the Congressional midterms. Vote for people who will force President Bush to change the incredible man in charge of his military policy.

North Korea Returns to Nuclear Talks

Interesting things to note:

1. China set up the meetings that led to the breakthrough on talks. It is clearly taking a forceful, proactive approach to these negotiations. China has apparently reportedly even withheld diesel and heating fuel from North Korea in September.
2. The arrangement that led to the talks was three-way talks between the United States, North Korea, and China in Beijing.
3. The North Koreans are being hurt by American action against their money-laundering activities, as reflected by the priority the North Koreans placed on having U.S. Treasury action against a Macau bank, Banco Delta Asia, on the agenda of nuclear talks. (I think this also reveals the North Koreans' goals in exploding their nuclear device). The bank, which has previously been in the news, purportedly holds the Kim family's bank accounts and had placed North Korean counterfeited cash in circulation.

Politicians' and diplomats’ expectations for discussions to end North Korea’s nuclear programs are low. As David Straub, a former U.S. diplomat involved in earlier discussions stated:

"[B]oth [the United States and North Korea] will almost certainly take even tougher lines."

Straub stated that the U.S. and North Korea need to change negotiating positions, and Democrats say that the U.S. needs to negotiate directly with North Korea.

Today's Washington Post editorial page warns that this supposed breakthrough could simply allow the Chinese and the North Koreans to alleviate pressure on the North Korean regime and for China to control its wayward client while North Korea gives up nothing.

The problem is that this is always true when negotiating with the North Koreans. But if our only real choice is to negotiate, the editorial is correct to place the onus for continued movement by the North Koreans on China. They made these talks happen, and they should be the focus of American pressure to see that they succeed.