Showing posts with label insurgents. Show all posts
Showing posts with label insurgents. Show all posts

Monday, April 14, 2008

11 Afghan Police Killed in Taliban Attack

By TAIMOOR SHAH and CARLOTTA GALL

KANDAHAR, Afghanistan — Taliban insurgents attacked a police checkpoint north of the city early Monday, killing 11 police officers and burning their vehicles before disappearing into the night.

The attack, on the main road between the southern provinces of Kandahar and Oruzgan, where the Taliban remains strong, was another illustration of how weak Afghanistan’s police force remains despite efforts to improve training and upgrade its equipment.

The policeman on watch on the roof was strangled, and was found in a room with two other policemen who had been bound and shot in the head at close range, said Nazar Jan, a policeman on guard at the scene Monday morning. Eight other policemen were found shot dead in the room where they slept, he said. Their bloodied blankets still lay in the room. One policeman escaped and was shot in the feet as he fled, Mr. Jan said.

Mr Jan said he had heard the shooting from his checkpoint, but since it did not last long, he and his colleagues did not think much of it. He did not appear surprised that the Taliban had attacked, saying there were insurgents present in the district, Argandab. The Taliban took the officers’ weapons, he added.

A spokesman for the Taliban, Qari Yousuf Ahmadi, claimed responsibility for the attack by telephone. The Interior Ministry confirmed the details in a statement issued in the capital, Kabul.

After their attack the Taliban left for their sanctuaries, and auxiliary police retook the checkpoint, the ministry said, adding that the wounded policeman was out of danger.

The Afghan police continue to bear the brunt of the Taliban insurgency, since they are often posted in small stations and come under attack at night. Eight more police officers were killed in two separate attacks in other areas of southern Afghanistan on Saturday.

In a separate attack Sunday west of Kandahar, two British soldiers were killed in an explosion and two others were wounded, the British Defense Ministry announced in a statement issued in London. The deaths brought to 93 the number of British soldiers killed since 2001. Forty foreign soldiers have died in Afghanistan this year.

The president of the International Committee of the Red Cross, Jakob Kellenberger, said his organization had seen an increase in war wounded since 2006 and through 2007, in particular in a hospital it supports in Kandahar, where, he said, 27 percent of hospital patients are war wounded. During his weeklong visit to Afghanistan he called on all parties in the conflict, including NATO and American military representatives and members of the “armed opposition,” to protect civilians and medical facilities.

Because of the increase in fighting, the Red Cross was concerned that many civilians in remote areas were suffering unseen, and it and is expanding its first aid posts in the southern provinces.

“Our suspicion is that there are a lot of uncovered humanitarian needs related to the conflict in remote areas,” he said. “There must be made a distinction between civilians and those who are participating in the combat,” he said.

Mr. Kellengerger said he always emphasized that attacks should be proportional to the threat, a reference to some of the heavy bombardment NATO and United States forces have used against insurgents, which often results in heavy civilian casualties.

Saturday, March 15, 2008

China declares "people's war" for stability in Tibet

By Chris Buckley and Benjamin Kang Lim

BEIJING (Reuters) - China gave Tibetan independence protesters an ultimatum to surrender on Saturday after riots in Lhasa which killed at least 10 people in the worst unrest in the region for two decades.

The tough response by the Chinese authorities came after fierce protests on Friday which contradicted China's claims of stability and tarnished a carefully-nurtured image of national harmony as it readies to stage the Olympic Games in August.

Official Tibetan judicial authorities gave protesters until Monday night to turn themselves in and benefit from leniency.

"Criminals who do not surrender themselves by the deadline will be sternly punished according to the law," said a notice on the Tibetan government Web site (www.tibet.gov.cn).

International pressure mounted on Beijing to show restraint. Australia, the United States and Europe urged China to find a peaceful outcome, while Taiwan, which China claims as its own, predictably condemned Beijing for launching a crackdown.

Xinhua news agency said 10 "innocent civilians" had been shot or burned to death in the street clashes in the remote, mountain capital which has been sealed off. The dead included two people killed by shotguns.

Xinhua said 12 police officers had been "gravely injured" and 22 buildings and dozens of vehicles were set on fire.

A source close to the Tibetan government-in-exile, however, questioned the official death toll of 10. He said at least five Tibetan protesters had been shot dead by troops.

Some Tibet monitoring organizations outside the country put the death toll at up to 32.

The riots emerged from a volatile mix of pre-Olympics protests, diplomatic friction over Tibet and local discontent with the harsh ways of the region's Communist Party leadership.

The protests, the worst since 1989 in the disputed region, have thrust China's role as Olympic host and its policy towards Tibet back into the international spotlight.

A rash of angry blog posts appeared after the deaths were confirmed. Hollywood actor Richard Gere, a Buddhist and an activist for Tibetan causes, urged an Olympics boycott.

Official statements suggested the government reaction in coming days would be tough, with Tibetan Buddhist monasteries -- traditional focal point of opposition to Beijing's rule -- and nunneries being brought under tighter control.

PUNISHMENT AND REWARDS

The regional communist-controlled government said those who harbored protesters would be punished and offered rewards and protection to informers. Tibet television urged residents to denounce the "malicious intent" of the Dalai Lama.

Tibetan crowds in Lhasa attacked government offices, burned vehicles and shops and threw stones at police in Friday's confrontations. Many people were injured.

Chinese television showed footage of rioters trashing shops and trying to break down the entrance of a bank, and plumes of smoke floating above the city.

A Reuters picture showed a protester setting on fire a Chinese national flag. Another depicted security personnel shielding themselves against rocks hurled by protesters.

Qiangba Puncog, the top government official in Tibet, told reporters in Beijing that Tibetan authorities had not fired any shots to quell the violence.

John Ackerly, of the International Campaign for Tibet, said in an e-mailed statement he feared "hundreds of Tibetans have been arrested and are being interrogated and tortured".

Hundreds of angry young Tibetans protested on Saturday in Dharamsala, home to Tibet's exiled spiritual leader the Dalai Lama and the refugees' "government-in-exile".

Not far from where the Dalai Lama was recovering from a cold and keeping up his lifetime routine of praying for peace, the crowd of young Tibetans gathered to vent their rage.

The crowd tore apart a flaming effigy of Chinese President Hu Jintao in normally peaceful Dharamsala in the Indian Himalayas and the protesters decided to march to New Delhi.

A Western tourist said that Lhasa itself was like a ghost town on Saturday, though it was packed with Chinese soldiers.

China has accused followers of the Dalai Lama of engineering unrest in the run-up to the Beijing Olympics. The Olympic torch relay will pass through Tibet in a few weeks time.

Although the Dalai Lama was resting after falling ill with a cold, he released a statement condemning the "brute force" of China on Friday and will meet with journalists on Sunday.

"He is a monk so he follows his routine," explained Chhime Chhoekyapa, the Dalai Lama's spokesman. That includes listening to news on the radio. "He said it's very sad," said Chhoekyapa. "As a Buddhist he prays for peace."

The Free Tibet Campaign organization cited eyewitnesses as saying that thousands marched on government buildings in Xiahe, an ethnic Tibetan area of China, and raised a Tibetan national flag at a school.

In Lhasa, Danish tourist Bente Walle, 58, said: "Today Lhasa is completely closed and there is Chinese military all over."

(Additional reporting by Guo Shipeng, Nick Mulvenney, Ben Blanchard and Lindsay Beck in Beijing, John Ruwitch in Chengdu and Sophie Taylor in Shanghai)

(Editing by Peter Millership)

Saturday, March 08, 2008

Gains Cited in Hunt for Liberia Ex-Warlord’s Fortune

By MARLISE SIMONS

THE HAGUE — For two years, Charles Taylor, the West African warlord and former president of Liberia, has been locked in a Dutch high-security jail, leaving the compound only in an armored car that speeds across The Hague as it delivers him to his war crimes trial.

But while he is in the dock, the hunt is still on for his legendary missing fortune. Prosecutors say the most exhaustive effort to date is under way to pinpoint the money the former dictator is believed to have amassed by pilfering the coffers of his country and running smuggling operations, particularly of diamonds, deep inside neighboring states.

No money has been seized, but investigators say they have made some breakthroughs recently.

“We have new information that more than $1 billion passed through Taylor’s personal bank accounts between 1997 and 2003 when he was president,” said Stephen Rapp, the chief prosecutor of the Special Court for Sierra Leone, which is trying Mr. Taylor at an outpost in The Hague. Last year, experts advising the United Nations Security Council estimated Mr. Taylor’s fortune at half that amount.

Newly traced bank records and other documents show Liberian money flowing into Mr. Taylor’s accounts, as well as large cash withdrawals and transfers to foreign banks, Mr. Rapp said. “The records showed he controlled enormous funds which he hid,” the prosecutor said. “The big question is how much of that wealth is still left.”

The court now has the aid of a London law firm with experience in recovering wealth stolen by dictators and other leaders. Court officials said the firm was being paid by Western governments but they would not release other details, saying that could jeopardize the investigation.

Mr. Taylor, 60, has been charged with pillaging, but his hidden accounts and assets are also central to his prosecution on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity. The prosecutors want to demonstrate how he financed operations that dragged neighboring Sierra Leone into a civil war that lasted more than a decade.

Prosecutors argue that in his drive to expand his power in the region, Mr. Taylor used stolen millions, including profits from smuggled diamonds, to buy the loyalty, weapons and supplies for rebels in Sierra Leone and other neighboring countries. His indictment holds him accountable for the rebels’ barbaric methods, as they pillaged, killed, raped, used children as soldiers and hacked off hands or feet of innocent civilians.

No one knows how much money was stolen in the region or raised from the diamond fields of Sierra Leone and parts of Guinea. Evidence presented at the trial showed that enslaved laborers were often forced to dig for diamonds at gunpoint and could be executed for keeping a stone. Court investigators have said diamonds were often sold cheaply and used to pay for clandestine weapons shipments.

Millions of dollars of income from government timber concessions and Liberia’s shipping flags of convenience often went directly to Mr. Taylor, Western diplomats have said.

If the international judges’ panel finds him guilty of pillaging, the court can seize assets proved to belong to him or his associates and use the money for restitution.

The list of claimants is likely to be long. Trust funds have been set up in Liberia and Sierra Leone for war victims, among them the thousands who were mutilated by machetes. Each country may have claims for war damages and for pilfering state coffers and resources like diamonds and timber, prosecutors have said.

Not least, the court could claim funds for its expenses on Mr. Taylor’s defense.

The former Liberian dictator, who arrives for court in tinted glasses and impeccable suits, has insisted he has almost no money and cannot even pay for his defense. The governments of Nigeria and Liberia, where Mr. Taylor is believed to have considerable investments and real estate, have not cooperated with the court’s requests for information and freezing his assets, prosecutors said.

As a result, the court is paying $70,000 per month to his defense team, which includes a dozen people. It pays an additional $30,000 per month in other expenses, like the team’s office rent and salaries for the four investigators assigned to him.

Mr. Taylor, who had fretted about what he called the “low level” of his court-appointed defense team, obtained a court order last summer providing him with a large team of more senior lawyers.

If Mr. Taylor’s assets are found, the court could bill him for his defense, expected to cost $3 million to $4 million. Such costs are now paid by the governments who help finance the United Nations-backed court. The United States, which had high hopes for Mr. Taylor in 1997 when he was elected president, and backed him with aid and assistance, is a major donor.

Investigators say Mr. Taylor has demonstrated his skills in hiding money and fooling people, including the court, before. He built his first fortune as a government official in the 1980s and pocketed more than $900,000 before fleeing an embezzling charge. He was arrested in Boston, but while awaiting extradition he escaped from a Massachusetts jail and disappeared.

He is believed to have collected millions as a warlord in the 1990s from entrepreneurs in exchange for favors.

“We know now that many of Taylor’s assets are hidden off-shore or behind the names of his associates,” said Mr. Rapp, the chief prosecutor. But large cash withdrawals during his tenure as president suggest that he spent much of it on the war effort, according to investigators.

The United Nations has frozen $6 million in assets, in the name of Mr. Taylor or his associates, in 10 countries. “It’s a start, but it can’t be seized until we prove it’s Taylor’s money,” Mr. Rapp said.

The London lawyers are enlisting law enforcement agencies to press banks in several financial havens to cooperate, according to Mr. Rapp, who said that some countries, including the Bahamas and Switzerland, are already helping.

“Enough progress has already been made to show that more can be found,” he said.

A Kurdish Society of Soldiers

In Rugged N. Iraq, Guerrillas Forge a Unity Based on Hardship and Defiance

By Joshua Partlow
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, March 8, 2008; A01

ZAP VALLEY, Iraq -- On the day the Turkish soldiers withdrew from Iraq, 40 Kurdish guerrillas convened to bury five of their dead.

The corpses were wrapped in black plastic and camouflage tarp, lashed to stretchers fashioned from branches, and draped in the flag of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK. In silence the guerrillas stacked large rocks into five piles, resting the stretchers end-to-end on the cairns. They stood in two rows with machine guns pointed above the mountains that surrounded them and waited for their leader to speak.

"The Turkish army could not capture any of our territory, could not get one of our bases, our weapons or even a scrap of nylon," Bahoz Erdal, the 39-year-old military commander of the Kurdish guerrillas, told his serried ranks. "The Turkish army didn't have any chance to rest. When they attacked, we hit them. When they made camp, we hit them. Even when they pulled back, we hit them."

The conclusion of the eight-day battle last Friday along Iraq's northern border was described by Turkey's government as the scheduled end to a successful incursion that crippled its enemies, destroying hundreds of their caves and hideouts. But ultimately the battle ended where it had begun, with the intractable guerrillas in sole control of hundreds of miles of mountainous terrain.

At the funeral, the quiet ending to their latest war, some guerrillas bowed their heads but no tears were shed.

"In the last 10 days in Zap, our fighters displayed their historic heroism," Erdal told his soldiers. "In this defense, you brought back again the fighting spirit of the PKK."

A Washington Post correspondent and staff photographer who spent five days inside rebel territory during and after the battle -- the only reporters allowed to accompany the guerrillas through this period -- observed a self-sufficient society, with its own rituals and traditions, that bears no resemblance to the rest of Iraq. Access, however, was limited to the people and places the guerrillas chose to reveal, and it was difficult to verify details of the battle because of the vast distances between locations.

What was clear was that years in these snowcapped mountains have forged the fighters into rugged ascetics. Although they have based themselves in northern Iraq, they are oriented elsewhere, choosing even to live on Turkish time, an hour behind Iraq's. They are based in the heart of the Islamic Middle East but are largely uninterested in religion or the cultures they abandoned in Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq. They relate their struggle to those of the American revolutionaries who fought the British crown, and the Cuban guerrillas who followed Fidel Castro down from the Sierra Maestra mountains.

"We are fighting for democracy, for freedom," said Osman Delbrine, a 32-year-old guerrilla with eight years in the mountains. "We are fighting for peace and for all Kurds in all nations."

Their tactics can be ruthless. They slip over the border to blow up Turkish soldiers and retreat back to Iraq. It is more unusual for them to be on the defensive, protecting their territory from Turkish attack. The PKK, with 4,000 to 5,000 fighters, according to the U.S. State Department, represents less of a threat than it once did to the Turkish government. But the group is benefiting from a resurgence of nationalist feeling among the 25 million Kurds dispersed throughout the region.

The PKK leaders say they are no longer fighting for an independent Kurdish state, or even to replicate or expand the semiautonomous Kurdish region in Iraq. Rather, they say, they want their people to speak Kurdish in schools, to receive national identification cards, to have equal rights for women, to avoid persecution by state security forces, and to gain respect and political influence wherever they live. To walk among the guerrillas, however, is to feel some are also fighting to prolong their communal, socialist experiment and to be left alone.

"In society, in the cities, I feel like someone is choking me," said Berivan, a 27-year-old female guerrilla. "In the mountains I feel free."

The guerrillas receive no salaries. They sew their olive-drab wool uniforms and treat their wounded. They have no homes and live in peripatetic motion, walking goat trails and dry creek beds, through mossy boulder fields and across slabs of brindled rock. The small villages that dot this territory are abandoned now, the lone paved road deserted. The guerrillas sleep on bedrolls in caves or under the stars, drink spring water and eat what they can forage or smuggle in from civilization.

"Our life is totally different than yours," one guerrilla said.

Although the PKK welcomes visitors, the Kurdistan Regional Government of northern Iraq has tried to bar outsiders, particularly journalists, from entering the area where the authorities effectively tolerate the guerrillas. After receiving an invitation to tour the area, The Post's journalists hiked for eight hours, first up a rocky path for herders to the top of a mountain overlooking Kurdish towns to the south, then down a precipitous slope a local guide said was littered with land mines. Along the way, it was necessary to shimmy across a steel bridge mangled by Turkish bombs and crouch below boulders when warplanes flew overhead. The mountains rang with the spatter of gunfire and the discharge of distant bombs. At dusk, the first guerrilla -- wearing camouflage and carrying a Kalashnikov rifle -- appeared from behind a tree in a rock-strewn ravine. Others soon emerged, and one of them held out his hand.

"Welcome to our mountain," he said in English.

'He Was My Best Friend'

The Turkish military invasion, known as Operation Sun, began Feb. 21 with an aerial bombardment, followed by a push of a reported 2,000 ground troops in various passes across the 200-mile border Turkey shares with Iraq.

The thrust of the ground battle targeted the Zap Valley, a crucial region in the western portion of the guerrillas' territory, home to their headquarters, training camps, underground storage rooms, burial plots and fighters manning their Russian-made antiaircraft Dushka machine-gun positions on the snowy peaks. Erdal, the high-strung, fast-talking guerrilla commander, abandoned his medical school studies in Damascus, Syria, two decades ago to join the PKK. Since then, he has fixated on fighting Turkey.

"It's not random that they are attacking this area," he said. "The army that they brought is enough to capture an area like Zap. But when you use a very big army, it's difficult to organize, and your movements will be slow."

In the end, Erdal said, his guerrillas drove Turkey back down from the mountains after killing more than 120 of its soldiers; Turkey claimed to have lost 24. The disparity was larger on the guerrilla side: Erdal and several others insisted that just 10 of their own were killed, while Turkey put the number at more than 230.

One of the corpses lashed to the branches on the day of the funeral belonged to Ayhan Eruh. During preparations for the funeral, the names of the dead were written on scraps of white paper tied to their chests. This was a scene Roshat Sarhat, a 30-year-old guerrilla who once was a journalist in Istanbul, had no interest in seeing. He stayed in an abandoned stone hut on a hillside far from the service. The bare single room was silent but for the crackle of his radio and the buzz of a surveillance drone high overhead.

"He was my best friend," Sarhat said. Eruh had died on the first day of the battle.

'The Mountain Teaches Us'

Throughout the fighting, the hundreds of guerrillas used the same battle-tested tactics they have relied on for years: Move quickly, hit and retreat, harass and confuse the more-powerful enemy. They carry AK-47s, sniper rifles, shoulder-fired rockets and hand grenades.

"Some of our attacks required only five guerrillas, and others used 50 or 60," Erdal said. "For example, you send five guerrillas to a huge army at night, they attack them and leave the area; then these soldiers cannot sleep until the morning. In a different situation, you use 50 or 60 guerrillas to hold a mountain."

After President Bush met with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in November to discuss the PKK problem, the guerrillas rushed to make arrangements for battle. They stashed ammunition, weapons, food and water in caves and crags throughout the mountains, for quick resupply. Inside one such cave, they installed a cylindrical, metal wood-burning stove and chimney to heat a room constructed of army green cloth and plastic tarp.

"The mountain is a school for us," said Elif, a 32-year-old commander who dropped out of interior design school in Turkey 10 years ago to join the PKK. "The mountain teaches us how to walk, it taught us how to live in cold weather, how to go without eating for a long time," she said. "The Turkish soldiers have huge bodies, but they can't stay in the snow for more than a couple hours."

In the mountains they communicate using cellphone text messages or speak in code over hand-held Yaesu radios on ever-changing frequencies. If they occupy an abandoned home, they blanket the windows to hide the light and build fires at night to hide the smoke. "We are not scared," Sarhat said. "But we are always careful."

Sarhat, a somber, serious man, joined the PKK a decade ago after working as a television reporter in Turkey. He was born to Kurdish parents in the city of Van but did not learn his ancestral language because teaching it in the schools was forbidden. As he grew older and studied Kurdish history, he felt increasingly angry that his culture was suppressed.

"Anywhere the Kurds live in Turkey, you can't act like a Kurd. You can't have your own identification, you can't have your own history or culture," he said. "I realized that they took my nation's rights, our education, our identity. Then I decided to join the PKK."

In wartime the guerrillas fill various roles. There are medics with UNICEF first-aid kits, cooks and videographers, frontline fighters and logisticians. Yet they are also uniform down to the smallest details. They smoke one brand of cigarettes, Business Royales, and nearly all wear peach-colored Turkish Mekap sneakers with orange laces.

The guerrillas are not a people's army or ad hoc insurgency, but a trained paramilitary force that requires every new recruit to attend a three-month camp to study military tactics and become indoctrinated in the ideology of the imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan. The PKK's separatist war against Turkish authorities, which began in 1984 and lasted for a decade and a half, claimed the lives of about 35,000 people, mostly Kurds in southeastern Turkey.

In the PKK enclave in northern Iraq, Ocalan's chubby, mustachioed face is emblazoned on hillsides, flags and small pins the fighters wear on their vests. The reverence they exhibit toward Ocalan, captured in 1999 in Nairobi and now in a Turkish prison, borders on cultish. After assassination attempts against Ocalan in the 1990s, guerrillas immolated themselves and some became suicide bombers. To the governments of Turkey, Iraq and the United States, those tactics solidified the PKK's reputation as a terrorist organization.

"We don't want any mother in the world to have to receive the body of her dead son," said Hadar Afreen, a 26-year-old guerrilla who grew up outside Aleppo, Syria. "We don't want to fight; we want to be peaceful. But if they attack us, we will defend ourselves."

The PKK recruits many of its fighters when they are teenagers or college students and has been criticized for exploiting young people and effectively trapping them in the guerrilla force. But more than a dozen people interviewed last week said they came to the fight willingly. Some said they joined because their villages had been attacked or relatives slain by Turkish soldiers.

Afreen came to the mountains as an 18-year-old after she was told by Arab teachers she must join Syria's ruling Baath Party while in high school or face expulsion. She was familiar with the books of Ocalan and considered him a hero. She left a note for her parents saying she was joining the PKK, sneaked out of the house and has not spoken to them since.

"What I'm doing here is more important than my parents," she said.

After Erdal's speech at the funeral, the guerrillas, in solemn procession, marched the corpses up the mountainside, through wild grass meadows and over footbridges spanning two rushing creeks, until they reached their stone-walled cemetery surrounded by craters from Turkish bombs. With shovels and picks, they dug five spaces in the rows of cinder-block graves. They pushed the scraps of paper bearing names inside clear plastic bottles and placed them in the graves. Then they covered their dead with dirt and blank stone slabs and dispersed without ceremony back into the mountains.

Staff photographer Andrea Bruce and special correspondent Dlovan Brwari contributed to this report.

Latin American Crisis Resolved

Colombia Apologizes At Regional Summit

By Juan Forero
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, March 8, 2008; A09

BOGOTA, Colombia, March 7 -- The presidents of Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela on Friday agreed to end a bitter standoff that had resulted in troop deployments, a downturn in trade and a rupture in diplomatic relations.

The crisis began after Colombia bombed a rebel camp last Saturday just inside Ecuador, killing 24 guerrillas, including Luis Edgar Devia, a top commander. The strike marked the first time the army had killed a member of the directorate of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, a guerrilla group that has been fighting here for 44 years.

Colombian President Álvaro Uribe had come under criticism from various Latin American governments for the incursion, but at a regional summit in the Dominican Republic on Friday he heartily shook hands with Ecuadoran President Rafael Correa, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega. All three of those nations had broken relations with Colombia over the incident.

The resolution of the crisis, at a meeting of the 20-nation Rio Group, came in the form of a declaration that noted Uribe had apologized for the raid and that he promised never to violate another nation's border. "With the apology and the promise of never again violating a brother country, we have overcome this very grave crisis," said Correa, in comments that were broadcast live across much of Latin America.

Although the meeting ended on a positive note, the most serious issue raised in the debate -- that Colombian rebels operate with the help of foreign governments -- has not been resolved and is sure to fester.

The news came soon after the Defense Ministry in Bogota reported the death of a second member of the FARC's top command. Manuel Jesús Muñoz, better known by his nom de guerre, Iván Ríos, did not die in battle, but rather was killed by his own men this week in a mountainous, coffee-growing region of north-central Colombia, Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos told reporters.

The slaying appeared to reflect serious internal divisions in an organization that has in recent months seen several seasoned, mid-level commanders killed in combat and hundreds more desert.

Colombian officials said that Muñoz's men, tired of running from troops, decided to kill him. Santos said they then severed his hand and presented it, along with Muñoz's identification card and computer, to an army column that had been pursuing the guerrillas. The United States had placed a $5 million bounty on Muñoz's head, accusing him of coordinating drug-trafficking operations.

The issue of Colombian guerrillas and whether they are harbored by Venezuela and Ecuador marked the often heated exchanges at Friday's summit, which had been scheduled previously. Ecuador, Venezuela and Nicaragua focused on Colombia's violation of Ecuador's sovereignty, while Colombia said that its people are under threat from rebels hiding outside its borders.

Uribe came out firing, accusing Correa of ties to the FARC. He cited as evidence a letter culled from a computer that commandos recovered in the camp that belonged to Devia. Uribe said the letter showed that the FARC supported Correa during his 2006 presidential campaign.

Correa, a leftist, U.S.-trained economist, angrily rejected the allegations, accused Uribe of lying and explained that his government has battled against FARC units in Ecuador's northern jungles.

"How hard it is to believe something from someone who has lied so many times," Correa said. "My hands are clean, and free of blood."

Other presidents at the summit applauded the Ecuadoran leader, who along with Chávez had vowed to marshal international condemnation for Colombia's incursion.

Chávez, who had been accused this week of assisting the FARC, also denied any ties. "I have never done it and will never do it," he said. "I could have sent a lot of rifles to the FARC. I will never do it because I want peace."

Uribe, though, said his country had been attacked 40 times since 2004 by Colombian rebels who used Ecuador as a launching pad. He also explained why he didn't inform Correa of the strike against Devia, who had been located with the help of a rebel who deserted, military officials said.

"I didn't inform him of the operation because we have not received cooperation from his government in the fight against terrorism," Uribe said.

Tensions eased after Dominican President Leonel Fernández, the host of the summit, appealed for calm and said, "What all of us would like is for this meeting to end with a hug, a handshake, between the presidents of Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador."

With the hearty handshakes, the countries resumed normal diplomatic and commercial relations. Uribe also said that he would not file a complaint with the International Criminal Court accusing Chávez of aiding the FARC, as he had vowed earlier.

Friday, March 07, 2008

Ominous Rise in Baghdad Bombings

By Charles Crain/Baghdad

Thursday's double bombing in Baghdad, which killed nearly 70 people and left hundreds more wounded, was the worst attack in Iraq since June 2007. It continues a troubling trend: a slow but steady increase in deadly bombings across the country. The troop surge is ending and the U.S. has begun withdrawing soldiers from Baghdad, but these attacks may indicate that a military or political solution to the Sunni insurgency may be as far off as it was a year ago.

The attacks capped off a violent week. Last Sunday more than 20 people died in bombings across the capital. And last month nearly 100 people were killed when two women detonated suicide vests in a crowded Baghdad market. According to statistics released by the U.S. military such attacks declined sharply for most of 2007, bottoming out in December. Since late last year, though, car bombings and suicide vest bombings have increased steadily.

Despite this week's carnage the absolute number of bombings is still far lower than it was one year ago. The problem, however, is not simply lives lost, but also what the slow increase in attacks says about the resiliency of the Sunni insurgency. Battered by Shi'ite militias, the U.S. military and the defection of more moderate insurgents, al-Qaeda in Iraq and other radical insurgent groups are much weaker now than they were just last summer. But, as U.S. officials are quick to acknowledge, they still have the men, the money and the organization to pose a serious threat.

The question now is how that threat will be kept under control. American troop levels in Baghdad and the rest of Iraq will return this year to about the same level as 2006 — the year that saw the worst of the country's sectarian violence. Helping to fill that void, supposedly, will be former members of the Sunni insurgency: thousands have become U.S.-paid counter-insurgents and, in some cases, members of the Iraqi government security forces. Unlike the mostly Shi'ite Iraqi army and police, these Sunnis have credibility in their towns and neighborhoods and have proven effective in fighting their former insurgent allies.

The trouble is that this ground-level military solution may be in conflict with other government efforts to reduce the violence and foster stability in Iraq. The Karrada bombing came on the heels of a state visit by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and struck a neighborhood that is home to Iraq's largest Shi'ite political party and many Shi'ite government officials. The timing and location of this bombing may have been a coincidence, but Karrada makes a nice target for Sunni militants who frame their fight as a struggle against Iranian domination.

The long-term difficulty for the United States and the Iraqi government is that this suspicion of Iran is not simply a fantasy of radical Sunni insurgents. It is a very real fear of Sunni former insurgents currently cooperating in the fight against al-Qaeda. Former insurgent leaders routinely scorn the Iraqi government's intentions, casting it as a pawn of the Iranians. So, as the Iraqi government strives to reduce violence by improving its relationship with Iran, it may be setting the stage for continued conflict with disaffected Sunnis.

Is Mosul on the Mend?

By Mark Kukis/Mosul

U.S. military officials say violence is dropping around Mosul, where insurgents have for months escalated attacks. In January, U.S. military data show there were more than 500 attacks across Ninewa Province, where Mosul is the largest and most volatile city by far. A senior military official speaking on condition of anonymity said the attacks in the province in February were expected to total roughly 400.

Even if the projections bear out, Mosul still remains a vicious battleground for Iraq, which has seen overall violence fall dramatically in recent months in the wake of the surge. And the city of 1.8 million people continues to vex U.S. military leaders, who have watched its troubles ebb and flow over the years.

In late 2003, Mosul was largely peaceful by comparison with the rest of Iraq at the time. The burgeoning insurgency, then beginning to spread across other areas of Iraq, was slower to take hold in Mosul for a number of factors. Mosul drew a measure of stability from its history as place of relative wealth and sophistication, whereas early insurgent havens like Fallujah and Ramadi were poor, troubled places even under Saddam Hussein. And some leaders among Mosul's Sunni community for a time held out hope of finding a role in the emerging post-invasion power structures even when Sunnis elsewhere were quickly adopting a rejectionist mentality. General David Petraeus, who was then head of U.S. forces in northern Iraq, says Mosul's first real plunge into violence came in 2004, after he handed over command of the area. The police force collapsed, and insurgents moved in. "Once the roots go in, then you have a real challenge," Petraeus says of the insurgency. "You just start to spiral downward."

In the years afterward, violence in Mosul fluctuated as insurgents kept up a presence in the city. But the situation there seemed much more stable than many parts of Iraq such as Baghdad and Ramadi. Then in 2007, as surge forces began reducing violence across Iraq, the picture in Mosul worsened, leaving it the only place in the country where violence was rising as the year closed. Iraqi and American officials agree that Mosul is now probably the last urban stronghold of the insurgency. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki dispatched additional Iraqi army troopers to the area, promising a "decisive battle" that has yet to materialize. But in any case Petraeus and other U.S. commanders believe that efforts to fix Mosul this time are destined to work better, chiefly because nationalist Sunni fighters are rethinking their alliances with al-Qaeda in Iraq and, in some cases, becoming open to reconciliation.

"Sunni Arabs have evolved," Petraeus says. "They realize that al-Qaeda has brought them nothing but indiscriminate violence and bloodshed and in many cases oppressive practices such as forced marriages. And in some cases bizarre practices such as breaking fingers of people who smoke."

The military strategy in Mosul for both U.S. troops and Iraqi security forces is much the same approach used elsewhere in Iraq over the years, with mixed results. Absent, however, is one key aspect that shaped progress in other places over the past year: local volunteer security forces who, in many cases, were nationalist insurgents who broke with al-Qaeda in Iraq. U.S. officials say that strategy won't work in Mosul, because standing up bands of irregulars could inflame existing ethnic and sectarian divisions in the city. So many U.S. military officials see provincial elections as a way to sap the insurgency's strength in Mosul. In the 2005 elections, many Sunnis across Iraq simply did not participate, a defiance that left them dejected and marginalized — and susceptible to the embrace of insurgent elements. Petraeus and other American officials in Baghdad think Sunnis will take part in elections this time and rejoin the civic process rather than rage against it. "They want their seats at the table back," Petraeus says.

Still, an opportunity for reconciliable Sunnis to turn from the insurgency to participation in the government does not appear to be near. Last week, Iraq's presidential council blocked a proposal for new provincial elections, sending the measure back to the parliament for reconsideration. So U.S. and Iraqi forces in Mosul are left to slog on against the insurgency rooted there without the prospect of a change in the political dynamic that might alter the situation in the way the tribal revolt in Anbar Province against al Qaeda in Iraq did last year.

Daily missions by U.S. and Iraqi troops continue in Mosul, a pivotal hub for insurgents operating throughout Iraq. Petraeus says U.S. and Iraqi forces are eliminating one insurgent roadside bomb team a night and taking out key insurgent leaders. "You've got to chip away at the enemy," he says. "Al-Qaeda knows they can't win without Baghdad, but they can't survive without Mosul."

Colombians back president

A poll shows Uribe's popularity has climbed since the raid in Ecuador. Many slam Hugo Chavez instead.
By Chris Kraul
Los Angeles Times Staff Writer

March 7, 2008

BOGOTA, COLOMBIA — Even at a rally where the placards, chants and speeches carried a distinctly anti-government flavor, Colombians on Thursday backed President Alvaro Uribe after his soldiers' risky incursion into Ecuador to kill a leftist rebel leader.

The incursion Saturday brought reproval from the Organization of American States and prompted neighbors Ecuador and Venezuela to mass troops at their borders and cut diplomatic ties. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez unleashed a torrent of invective, describing Uribe as a mafioso and a U.S. lackey.

"Chavez shouldn't talk in such a vulgar way about our president. That hurts us," said Marina Narvaez, who said she attended the rally because she had survived being forced off her land by paramilitaries in Cordoba state.

Accountant Rafael Escobar said Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa "is not helping things" by touring Latin America to denounce Colombia after the incursion, which killed Raul Reyes, the No. 2 leader in the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, the country's largest rebel group. "Leaders should talk among themselves to resolve things."

On a side street just off the central Plaza Bolivar, Vilma Paniza, a department store customer service representative, hurried back to work from the noon rally. "Chavez has a bad attitude," she said. "He wants to dominate us and everyone else and he's not going to."

Planned long before the region's crisis erupted, the rally was organized to underscore the government's role in decades of violence and misery, to remind Colombians that it was not all the fault of rebel groups like the FARC.

But most marchers couldn't bring themselves to knock Uribe for having brought Colombia to its most serious diplomatic standoff in decades.

Their mood is indicative of a public that has rallied behind Uribe, even as Venezuelan and Ecuadorean troops have gathered at the border, those neighbors -- joined by Nicaragua on Thursday -- have broken diplomatic ties and Chavez has threatened to hurt Colombia by freezing trade and using other tactics.

A poll conducted in four cities this week showed Uribe's popularity has climbed since the raid to an 83% approval rating. Although the poll was commissioned by the government, it still reflects popular sentiment, said Cesar Caballero, head of the independent polling firm Concepts and Figures in Bogota.

"First, there is a tremendous solidarity behind Uribe for the gross language Chavez has used toward him," Caballero said. "Also, there is a growing outrage against the FARC for its brutality, kidnappings and extortions, which the government uses at every opportunity in its favor."

Even opinion makers such as magazine columnist Daniel Coronell, who often take an anti-Uribe stance, have lined up behind the president. "The intrusion of the government of Venezuela is a hugely disturbing factor that blocks the path to a resolution."

Nearly all those interviewed at the rally saw the chance of war as remote, despite Chavez's statements and Venezuela's having sent 9,000 troops to its border, along with tanks and aircraft. Ecuador deployed 3,200 troops, and a government spokeswoman announced Thursday that its army had captured five suspected Colombian guerrillas on its side of the line. Colombia has sent no extra troops as yet.

"It's just talk," said Alejandro Alvarez, a lawyer from the eastern city of Arauca. "There is a conflict, but it's a political and diplomatic conflict that won't reach physical war. Chavez can send all the troops he wants. But it's another thing to fire shots."

In Managua, Nicaragua, President Daniel Ortega, with Correa at his side, announced that he was cutting diplomatic relations with Colombia.

It was during Correa's visit the night before in Venezuela that Chavez warned not only of a possible nationalization of Colombian companies, but also that trade between the two countries, which last year totaled $5 billion, would be reduced.

Chavez has sealed off most border crossings with Colombia, allowing cars and pedestrians but keeping out all but perishable cargo.

Analysts said a prolonged reduction in Colombian imports, which represent a significant portion of Venezuela's daily foodstuffs, might compound Chavez's domestic problems.

Venezuela is already suffering from widespread food shortages and double-digit inflation, largely as a result of socialist policies that have cut domestic production.

The threats came a day after the Organization of American States passed a resolution criticizing Colombia's incursion one mile into Ecuador. Although Colombia apologized and Ecuadorean Foreign Minister Maria Isabel Salvador expressed her satisfaction with the vote, Correa on Thursday said it was unacceptable and demanded the OAS issue a more formal condemnation.

Also in Ecuador, authorities said two Mexican citizens may have died along with Reyes. University students from Mexico were visiting Quito, the Ecuadorean capital, at the time, and some were thought to have visited the rebel camp where Reyes was. One female student was injured in the attack, but Mexico's Foreign Relations Ministry said Thursday that no deaths had been confirmed

Ecuadorean Defense Minister Wellington Sandoval, reacting to reports that U.S. intelligence helped locate Reyes, told a radio reporter that Colombia must have received help via "technology that Latin America does not have." He said the bombs that killed Reyes all dropped within a 50-meter radius and seemed to be "smart bombs."

Colombia's Defense Ministry said Wednesday that Reyes was located through a tip from a "demobilized" guerrilla.

U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.), the ranking Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Thursday requested a hearing or a classified session with senior Colombian officials to review information obtained from three laptop computers recovered in the jungle camp where Reyes was killed.

Colombian authorities said this week that the information includes documents indicating the FARC received $300 million from Chavez and that the rebels were seeking to acquire uranium, possibly for a weapon.

chris.kraul@latimes.com

Special correspondents Paul Rosero in Quito and Jenny Carolina Gonzalez in Bogota and Cecilia Sánchez of The Times' Mexico City Bureau contributed to this report.

Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Stress Builds Over Colombia Raid

Regional Leaders Urge Calm; Police Cite Rebel Documents

By Monte Reel
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, March 4, 2008; A13

RECIFE, Brazil, March 3 -- More accusations of cross-border meddling intensified diplomatic tensions Monday between Colombia and its neighbors Ecuador and Venezuela, as other Latin American leaders tried to defuse a crisis they fear could threaten regional stability.

Venezuela and Ecuador deployed troops to their borders with Colombia, which on Saturday attacked a jungle encampment in Ecuadoran territory used by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC. A senior leader of the Marxist insurgency, which has battled the Colombian government for more than four decades and profits from the drug trade, was killed in the raid.

Ecuador's President Rafael Correa formally cut diplomatic ties with Colombia and has joined Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in denouncing the attack as a violation of his country's sovereignty. Venezuela said later that it would expel the Colombian ambassador and other diplomatic personnel. Regional leaders, including officials in Brazil and Chile, strongly questioned Colombia's military incursion into Ecuador, but urged peaceful negotiations to avert a regional military conflict.

Colombian officials said Monday that they do not plan to send troops to the borders with Venezuela and Ecuador. But they contended that the raid proved their long-held suspicion that Colombian guerrillas have been using neighboring countries as havens from which to attack Colombian forces.

"We are accustomed to the Colombian government's lies," said Ramón Carrizalez, Venezuela's executive vice president. "They can invent whatever they like to try to cover up the violation of Ecuadoran territory."

Gen. Óscar Naranjo, director of Colombia's national police, said computers recovered from the camp revealed numerous links between the rebels and the governments of Ecuador and Venezuela, including evidence of more than $300 million in payments from Chávez to the FARC. Colombia's government, led by U.S. ally Álvaro Uribe, has accused the populist administrations of Chávez and Correa of sympathizing with the FARC's stated cause.

The documents were recovered from three computers, according to Naranjo, and their contents will be analyzed by inspectors from the Organization of American States. He said the documents also contain details of international drug deals and efforts to acquire 50 kilograms of uranium. Naranjo did not provide evidence to back those allegations, but he suggested that the documents should spur other countries to get involved in the crisis.

"This means the FARC is taking big steps in the world of terrorism to become a global aggressor," Naranjo said during a news conference. "This is transnational terrorism."

Leaders throughout Latin America tried Monday to cool the crisis. In Brazil, an adviser to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva told a radio station that the conflict was "beginning to destabilize regional relations." Lula planned to talk with Argentine President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner on Monday to coordinate diplomatic efforts, said the adviser, Marco Aurélio Garcia.

"We are mobilizing all of Brazil's diplomatic resources and those of other South American capitals to find a lasting solution," Garcia was quoted as saying.

Chile's President Michelle Bachelet suggested that Colombia has the responsibility to thoroughly explain the decision to attack with airstrikes and ground troops across the Ecuadoran border. The raid killed at least 16 people, including Luis Edgar Devia, a top FARC commander also known as Raúl Reyes.

"A situation of this nature requires an explanation from Colombia to Ecuadorans -- to the president of Ecuador and the entire region," Bachelet said in comments broadcast by TV Chile. "We are very worried."

Though the incident that sparked the crisis did not involve Venezuela, Chávez -- a close ally of Correa's and a frequent critic of Colombia's close relations with the United States -- jumped into the dispute.

Relations between Chávez and Uribe have been particularly tense since Chávez tried to mediate a swap of prisoners between FARC and the Colombian government last year. The FARC has since released six hostages to Venezuelan authorities.

On Sunday, Chávez threatened to go to war if Colombia ever carried out a similar attack against the FARC in Venezuelan territory.

"When you threaten war against a country, that's pretty serious," said Peter Hakim, president of the Washington-based policy group Inter-American Dialogue. "Certainly if it were coming from anyone but Hugo Chávez, people would be taking it extremely seriously. But our experience is that he tries to take advantage of what situation emerges to get himself this kind of international attention."

The U.S. State Department defended Colombia's pursuit of FARC members and encouraged bilateral discussions to solve the crisis.

"From our perspective, this is an issue between Colombia and Ecuador," Tom Casey, a department spokesman, told the Associated Press. "I'm not sure what this has to do with Venezuela.

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Turkey Says 127 Killed in Iraq Battles; U.S. Urges Restraint

By Ken Fireman and Mark Bentley

Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Turkey said the death toll in three days of battles with Kurdish fighters in northern Iraq reached 127, as the U.S. urged a swift end to the incursion.

Turkey's armed forces have killed 112 militants of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, including 33 today, the military said on its Web site. Fifteen Turkish soldiers have also died in the conflict, it said.

``We will continue the operation with the same determination and heroism until planned targets are reached,'' the military said, adding that jets, artillery and helicopters had hit 63 suspected PKK targets since troops went over the border on Feb. 21.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Turkey should wrap up the military campaign, adding Turkey won't be able to solve the problem of cross-border Kurdish raids through purely military means.

``I would hope that it would be short, that it would be precise and avoid the loss of innocent life, and that they leave as quickly as they can accomplish their mission,'' Gates told reporters today in Canberra, Australia.

Turkey has fought the autonomy-seeking PKK for two decades at the cost of almost 40,000 lives, most of them Kurdish. The U.S. and the European Union brand the group as terrorists.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ken Fireman in Canberra at kfireman1@bloomberg.net Mark Bentley in Ankara at mbentley3@bloomberg.net

Two Winnable Wars

By Anthony H. Cordesman
Sunday, February 24, 2008; B07

No one can return from the battlefields in Iraq and Afghanistan, as I recently did, without believing that these are wars that can still be won. They are also clearly wars that can still be lost, but visits to the battlefield show that these conflicts are very different from the wars being described in American political campaigns and most of the debates outside the United States.

These conflicts involve far more than combat between the United States and its allies against insurgent movements such as al-Qaeda in Iraq and the Taliban. Meaningful victory can come only if tactical military victories end in ideological and political victories and in successful governance and development. Dollars are as important as bullets, and so are political accommodation, effective government services and clear demonstrations that there is a future that does not need to be built on Islamist extremism.

The military situations in Iraq and Afghanistan are very different. The United States and its allies are winning virtually every tactical clash in both countries. In Iraq, however, al-Qaeda is clearly losing in every province. It is being reduced to a losing struggle for control of Nineveh and Mosul. There is a very real prospect of coalition forces bringing a reasonable degree of security if decisions such as Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's announcement Friday to extend his militia's cease-fire six months continue over a period of years.

Military victory is far more marginal in Afghanistan. NATO and international troops can still win tactically, but the Taliban is sharply expanding its support areas as well as its political and economic influence and control in Afghanistan. It has scored major gains in Pakistan, which is clearly the more important prize for al-Qaeda and has more Pashtuns than Afghanistan. U.S. commanders privately warn that victory cannot be attained without more troops, without all members of NATO and the International Security Assistance Force fully committing their troops to combat, and without a much stronger and consistent effort by the Pakistani army in both the federally administered tribal areas in western Pakistan and the Baluchi area in the south.

What the situations in Iraq and Afghanistan have in common is that it will take a major and consistent U.S. effort throughout the next administration at least to win either war. Any American political debate that ignores or denies the fact that these are long wars is dishonest and will ensure defeat. There are good reasons that the briefing slides in U.S. military and aid presentations for both battlefields don't end in 2008 or with some aid compact that expires in 2009. They go well beyond 2012 and often to 2020.

If the next president, Congress and the American people cannot face this reality, we will lose. Years of false promises about the speed with which we can create effective army, police and criminal justice capabilities in Iraq and Afghanistan cannot disguise the fact that mature, effective local forces and structures will not be available until 2012 and probably well beyond. This does not mean that U.S. and allied force levels cannot be cut over time, but a serious military and advisory presence will probably be needed for at least that long, and rushed reductions in forces or providing inadequate forces will lead to a collapse at the military level.

The most serious problems, however, are governance and development. Both countries face critical internal divisions and levels of poverty and unemployment that will require patience. These troubles can be worked out, but only over a period of years. Both central governments are corrupt and ineffective, and they cannot bring development and services without years of additional aid at far higher levels than the Bush administration now budgets. Blaming weak governments or trying to rush them into effective action by threatening to leave will undercut them long before they are strong enough to act.

Any American political leader who cannot face these realities, now or in the future, will ensure defeat in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Any Congress that insists on instant victory or success will do the same. We either need long-term commitments, effective long-term resources and strategic patience -- or we do not need enemies. We will defeat ourselves.

The writer holds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He recently returned from the front lines in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Turkey Sends Soldiers Into N. Iraq

Offensive Against Kurdish Separatists Alarms Baghdad

By Joshua Partlow and Amit R. Paley
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, February 23, 2008; A11

DAHUK, Iraq, Feb. 22 -- After months of sporadic shelling targeting the mountain hideouts of Kurdish guerrilla fighters, Turkey sent tanks and ground troops into northern Iraq on Thursday afternoon in an incursion that escalated the tension between the neighboring countries.

The incursion marked the first time since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003 that Turkish soldiers in large numbers have crossed onto Iraqi soil. The offensive alarmed Iraqi officials, who have condemned violence by the separatist Kurdish guerrillas in the past but do not want to see a large-scale Turkish invasion.

"This has been a serious escalation," Iraq's foreign minister, Hoshyar Zebari, said in an interview. "We hope that this will end as soon as possible for fear of escalation or any minor mistakes that would lead to a wider problem."

After hours of bombing and shelling by Turkish artillery and warplanes, Turkish soldiers crossed via the Habur mountain pass after dusk Thursday into a sparsely populated corner of northern Iraq that the separatist rebel group, known as the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, has used as a refuge and a base for attacks inside Turkey. The number of Turkish troops in Iraq remained unclear Friday, but U.S. and Iraqi officials estimated it at 500 to 1,000. Turkish television reported that the number was as high as 10,000.

Rear Adm. Gregory J. Smith, a U.S. military spokesman in Baghdad, said he was unaware whether Turkish soldiers had fought any battles in Iraq.

"I don't know how far they have advanced or precisely how deep they are going to go," he said. "They said they will work to avoid collateral damage against infrastructure and civilians. We all agree that they are going after a terrorist group."

But Ahmed Denize, a member of the PKK, said that small teams of guerrillas had fought the Turkish soldiers throughout the day Friday. Turkish soldiers destroyed three bridges during their movement into Iraq, he said. He also said PKK fighters had killed about 20 Turkish soldiers, but that claim could not be verified.

"We had information that they are coming, so we spread out in small groups and opened fire on them," he said. "The fight is still going on."

The Turkish military reported that 24 members of the PKK were killed, along with five Turkish soldiers, according to the semiofficial Anatolia news agency.

The soldiers of northern Iraq's Kurdish regional government were on high alert Friday, officials said. Kurdish news agencies reported that the soldiers, known as the pesh merga, were dispatched from the Kurdish capital of Irbil to the northern city of Dahuk. In mountain towns along the way such as Sarsank and Anishka, the camouflaged soldiers in maroon berets were abundant, filling fleets of white pickup trucks at gas stations, sitting in groups along the side of the road or taking photographs of themselves overlooking the vast mountain valleys.

At a pesh merga base in Skren, commanders declined to discuss the troop movements but confirmed that the soldiers in the streets were new arrivals.

The conflict between the PKK and Turkey dates back decades and has claimed thousands of lives. The Kurdish guerrillas want more rights for the large Kurdish population in Turkey and have also, at times, advocated an independent Kurdish state in the region. The smoldering tensions flared up in October when Kurdish rebels killed 12 Turkish soldiers near Turkey's border with northern Iraq. Turkish politicians threatened an invasion and have said they will do what is necessary to protect their people from rebel attacks. Throughout the fall and winter, Turkey bombed PKK positions along the border but until Thursday had stopped short of crossing into Iraqi territory.

Turkish President Abdullah Gul told reporters in Ankara, the capital, that the troops were making every effort to avoid civilian casualties. "We have always welcomed and extended a helping hand to the Iraqi people during their difficult times, and they are friends and family of Turkey," he said.

Turkey has long maintained several small military bases in northern Iraq. As Turkey was bombarding Iraqi territory Thursday, Turkish tanks rolled out of one of their bases but were blocked by the pesh merga, according to Iraqi officials. After a tense standoff, both sides retreated.

The incident reflects the fine line the Kurdistan Regional Government is walking in dealing with Turkey's efforts against the rebel group. Its public stance in recent months has been that its forces will try to isolate and weaken the PKK but that they do not have the capability to drive out the guerrillas, who live in rugged terrain with steep, rocky roads. The pesh merga has blocked journalists' access to PKK territory, and Iraqi officials say they have also made it more difficult for the guerrillas to move throughout northern Iraq.

By refusing to confront the PKK, the Kurdish regional government avoids the potentially incendiary step of starting an intra-Kurdish battle within Iraq. At the same time, the PKK has very little political clout in Iraq and has been publicly condemned by all sides.

"We have not been a threat, and we do not pose a threat to Turkey," said Falah Mustafa Bakir, head of the Kurdish government's foreign relations department. "We've done what we can in order to help the situation. We care about this. We understand that this is a problem. But this is not the right approach to solve it. It only brings more destruction and brings more problems."

The Bush administration has been an active partner in Turkey's fight against the Kurdish rebels. Turkey has grown more aggressive since President Bush called the PKK a common enemy of Turkey, Iraq and the United States recently. The U.S. military has been sharing intelligence to help target rebel positions and is kept informed of Turkey's military movements.

Gul called Bush early Thursday to tell him of the incursion, according to Turkey's military. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice urged Turkey to keep the operation short and "keep in mind that while the terrorists need, obviously, to be stopped from doing what they're doing, that there really can't be a destabilization of the region."

"This is something that we were aware of in advance, and, as you know, the U.S. agrees with Turkey that the PKK is a terrorist organization and is an enemy of Turkey, Iraq and the United States," White House spokesman Scott Stanzel told reporters.

Kurdish officials said they have lived with the U.S.-sanctioned bombing campaign against the rebels but feel the incursion is a violation of their sovereignty; they have also said they will defend their territory, if necessary. Bakir, the Kurdish foreign relations official, said the Americans should halt the Turkish advance.

"We believe that they have a responsibility to stop this incursion, which is not in anybody's interest," he said.

Correspondent Ellen Knickmeyer in Cairo, special correspondent Dlovan Brwari in Dahuk and other Washington Post staff in Iraq contributed to this report.

Sunday, September 02, 2007

The Insurgency's Psychological Component

By Shankar Vedantam
Monday, September 3, 2007; A03

At the core of this fall's debate over Iraq lies one simple question: Can an increased number of U.S. troops subdue the Iraqi insurgency?

The question turns out to have complex answers, and not just because the political stakes are so high. Washington is already buzzing with arguments over Gen. David H. Petraeus's upcoming report about the effect of the U.S. "surge," but beyond the politics, social scientists have come up with some empirical answers.

Their analyses show that the outcome of the troop increase hinges on whether the insurgency is primarily a mathematical phenomenon or a psychological phenomenon.

If the insurgency follows the rules of conventional mathematics, increasing the number of U.S. troops should produce a greater counterinsurgency effort and a more peaceful Iraq. That is what one analysis found. Alex Braithwaite of Colorado State University tracked insurgent attacks across Iraq's provinces over a six-month period from January to June 2005. On average, there were 16 attempted attacks in each province each week. Braithwaite found an inverse relationship between insurgent attacks and the presence of U.S. troops.

"The insurgency is most severe where U.S. troop presence is low," Braithwaite said, as he presented his findings last week at the American Political Science Association meeting in Chicago. "U.S. troops dampen the effects of the insurgency."

But if Braithwaite's finding is good news for the Bush administration and other proponents of the war, there is also troubling evidence that the insurgency simultaneously has a psychological component. Increased levels of U.S. troops might produce tactical victories against insurgents -- but might also paradoxically provide the strategic fuel that grows the insurgency.

One of the most prominent advocates of this position is the political scientist Robert Pape of the University of Chicago. Increasing troops in Iraq, Pape argues, will win the United States a lot of battles with insurgents but also make it more likely that Americans will lose the war.

Pape's conclusions are based on a detailed examination of suicide attacks over the past 25 years. His central finding is that, contrary to conventional explanations, suicide attacks follow a certain strategic logic. From 1980 to 2006, Pape has counted 870 completed suicide attacks -- with the Iraqi insurgency accounting for the majority of such attacks in recent years.

Of the total, Pape has found that 824 of the attacks, or 95 percent, have come from groups that are fighting against military occupations of their homeland. Pape found that 85 percent of all the suicide attacks in the last quarter-century have come about in response to U.S. combat operations. There were eight times as many suicide attacks in Iraq in 2006 as there were in 2003.

While suicide attacks account for only a part of the overall Iraqi insurgency, Pape argues that these attacks provide the most reliable measure of the state of the insurgency. Furthermore, they are among the deadliest sources of mayhem in Iraq today. Every case that Pape counts has been corroborated by at least two independent sources. Pape's figures are considered so rigorous that U.S. government officials now use his database, and he gets funding from the Department of Defense.

"If you look at the chart [of suicide attacks] from 2004 to 2006, you see Iraq and Afghanistan exploding," Pape said. "American combat operations are directly associated with suicide terrorism. There was no suicide terrorism, and we go in and now there is suicide terrorism."

Pape believes his findings offer empirical proof that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have not lowered the risk of suicide attacks. Contrary to President Bush's argument that those wars provided the best way to lower the risk of suicide terrorism, Pape says the data show that launching overseas wars appears to be a way to increase the risk of suicide attacks. Improved homeland security, rather than foreign military occupations, the political scientist argues, is the way to lower the risk of suicide terrorism.

Unlike many of the other theories circulating in Washington, his theory can be put to a simple test, Pape said. For the first time, Pape said in an interview at the political science convention in Chicago, the troop buildup in Iraq has aggressively targeted Shiite groups, such as Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. Until now, suicide attackers have been largely limited to Iraq's minority Sunni population. Pape believes that U.S. operations against Shiite groups will cause increasing numbers of Shiites to see the Americans the way many Iraqi Sunnis do -- as occupiers, rather than liberators.

If foreign occupations do indeed provide the strategic fuel for insurgencies, Pape said, Americans should expect to see a spate of Shiite suicide attacks. He said he could not predict when the insurgency would take that disturbing turn but said it would be soon: "We're heading toward the cocktail of conditions that favor suicide terrorism from the Shia."

Saturday, September 01, 2007

The Former-Insurgent Counterinsurgency

By MICHAEL R. GORDON

Checkpoint 20 was the last piece of American-controlled terrain on the road to Hawr Rajab and our linkup point with Sheik Ali Majid al-Dulaimi. Before heading out, Lt. Col. Mark Odom surveyed the terrain from the rooftop of the nearby American combat outpost, a heavily sandbagged structure surrounded by concrete walls to guard against car bombs. A dusty town on the southern outskirts of Baghdad, Hawr Rajab had a strategic importance that belied its humble appearance. It straddled the infiltration routes used by Sunni militants to circumvent Lion’s Gate, the grandiloquently named system of checkpoints, canals and other obstacles designed to stop the suicide attacks that had brought havoc to the Iraqi capital.

Hawr Rajab had been under the dominion of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, a predominantly Iraqi group that took its inspiration from Osama bin Laden and whose senior echelons are filled by foreign jihadis. The group’s fighters in Hawr Rajab were armed with AK-47s, machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades, mortars and a seemingly endless supply of homemade improvised explosive devices (I.E.D.’s), many of which were concocted from urea fertilizer and nitric acid. They were hard to detect and yet powerful enough to destroy an armored vehicle. Odom’s soldiers had never driven into the town without encountering some form of “contact,” as his soldiers matter-of-factly referred to the clashes.

This day in early August, however, was to mark a turning point. Just a month earlier, the Americans acquired a new ally: Sheik Ali, a leader of the Dulaimi tribe. In an extraordinary development, a growing number of Sunnis who had sympathized with the insurgency or even fought American forces were now more concerned with removing Al Qaeda from their midst — so much so that they had chosen to ally with their supposed occupiers. Such expedient confederations were emerging across Iraq. They began last year when Sunni tribes and former insurgents in western Anbar Province began cooperating with American forces, cropped up later in the violent Diyala Province and even emerged in the sharply contested Ameriya neighborhood in Baghdad.

The sheik was relatively new to the game. Like many Sunnis, he insisted that Iraq had been more secure under Saddam Hussein. He told me he had no formal military credentials: his father paid a bribe so that he could avoid military service. With his penchant for track suits, the chain-smoking sheik seemed a most unlikely partner for Odom, the cerebral commander of the First Squadron, 40th Cavalry Regiment. But Ali had a powerful motivation to work with the American troops. Al Qaeda militants had killed his father, kidnapped his cousin, burned his home to the ground and alienated many of his fellow tribesmen by imposing a draconian version of Islamic law that proscribed smoking and required women to shroud themselves in veils.

Ali had already provided valuable intelligence on Al Qaeda operatives and had been recruiting members of his tribe for what was to be a new, American-backed security force. Al Qaeda’s hold on the town had been weakened, and the sheik was one reason why. The trip to Hawr Rajab was to be a further demonstration that the group’s days there were numbered.

Still, a series of broader concerns lingered in the background. Could the Americans’ success with the Sunni tribes in the provinces of Anbar and Diyala be transferred to other areas of the country? Even if the sheik delivered, did he and the Americans share the same long-range vision for Iraq? If they did, would the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad accept the emergence of new Sunni forces just outside the capital? Were the new local Sunni forces the key to stabilizing Iraq — or the prelude to a fiercer civil war?

The American strategy to stabilize Iraq is outlined in a several-inches-thick document called the Joint Campaign Plan. The stated goal is to achieve “localized security” (that is, in Baghdad and other critical parts of Iraq) by the summer of 2008 and to establish “sustainable security” nationwide by the summer of 2009. War critics at home have bemoaned the two-year time line, but meeting the objectives in such a short period would be an extraordinary accomplishment. The mission has been made all the more complex by the fact that the United States’ adversaries in Iraq are well aware that the “surge” of American reinforcements has placed a considerable strain on the Army and Marines and will probably run its course by early 2008. Yet the surge has also provided a chance to forge alliances between American forces and Sunnis who were fed up with Al Qaeda militants and uneasy about the Shiite-dominated government. The additional troops have enabled the United States to push into Sunni areas where American forces had not operated for many months and to stay there rather than sweeping through and leaving.

Before leaving Baghdad to embed with the troops, I stopped by the fortified Green Zone to talk with Maj. Gen. Paul Newton. A British officer with eight tours of duty in Northern Ireland, Newton recently joined the staff of Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top American commander in Iraq, and headed the Force Strategic Engagement Cell with Donald Blome, a senior aide to the U.S. ambassador, Ryan C. Crocker. It was part of the determined effort to exploit the willingness of local Sunnis to work with the American-led coalition. To my ear, it sometimes sounded as if the command had an assistant secretary of war for peace. Yet this effort was being carried out with hardheaded practicality and was potentially of enormous significance. The basic strategy was to persuade sheiks and former insurgents to submit lists of potential recruits for local security forces. These new recruits would be fingerprinted, photographed and given retina scans; all this would be entered into a database to help monitor the new forces.

Once accepted, the recruits would be organized into local neighborhood watches. (American commanders call these Concerned Local Citizens, or C.L.C.’s.) Every member could use the one AK-47 that each Iraqi household is allowed to retain but would not be issued any arms by the American military. The longer-range plan was to run the volunteers through a brief training program and institutionalize the arrangement by securing the Iraqi government’s agreement to transform them into the local police. Recruits would be vetted by the American authorities and the Iraqi government. But having taken up arms against the American-led coalition in the past — or even having American blood on your hands — was not necessarily a barrier.

“I draw the line at war crimes,” said Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, the No. 2 commander in Iraq, meaning that no one who has committed war crimes could join the force. “Local commanders can and will draw a more stringent line if they believe it is necessary. They understand the dynamics of their area better than I do. We reconcile at the end of any war. If we are able to buy time from the bottom up, that is a start. That will help us buy time for the government of Iraq to continue to mature. As those pockets of security get larger and larger, and we stitch them together, that buys time.” It was hoped that under the program Shiites, too, would eventually be recruited, but so far there had been little interest.

The fact that the patience of American politicians was running out had at least concentrated Sunni minds. For many Sunnis, the American troops were the most reliable protectors they had, and the Americans were looking less like long-term occupiers with each passing day. The development of new Sunni security forces was a way to blunt any Al Qaeda and Shiite militia countersurge when the Americans eventually pulled back.

That was the vision, and the relative success of recruiting efforts among the Sunnis had been the most favorable, if unexpected, development since the surge began. Executing the policy, however, has been extremely tricky. In effect, the American command has been moving on two parallel and possibly conflicting tracks. One represented a decentralization of power, as the American military organized Sunnis into local security forces. The second track was to centralize power in the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad and to strengthen national institutions like the largely Shiite Iraqi Army.

The key to squaring the circle is to establish a link between the new Sunni forces in the field and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s risk-averse government. At first, the American effort to work with the tribes in Iraq’s Anbar Province was not much of an issue; Iraqi officials were happy to see them take on Al Qaeda militants and did not seem overly concerned about the role of the tribes in a remote western region that had no valuable resources and few Shiites. But the closer the strategy came to Baghdad, the more anxious the Iraqi government seemed to be about new Sunni groups, and the process has sometimes been a matter of two steps forward, one step back. In Baquba, the capital of Diyala Province north of Baghdad, where I spent much of June, more than a thousand Sunni locals, including former insurgents, had joined the “Baquba Guardians.” They have not hesitated to challenge Al Qaeda, which, while just one of many insurgent organizations, has been linked to spectacular car bombs and other suicide attacks that have fanned sectarian tensions in Baghdad.

But the project ran into resistance from local Iraqi officials after some Guardians tried to take the next step and join the police. Capt. Ben Richards, the commander of Bronco Troop, First Squadron, 14th Cavalry Regiment, who was the first American officer to organize Sunnis in Baquba, told me that the Shiite provincial police chief had used ammunition as a means of political control. When the province received a large quantity of ammunition from the Interior Ministry, the police chief distributed 40,000 rounds to the predominantly Shiite police force in the nearby town of Khalis. Much of it is believed to have found its way to the Shiite Mahdi Army of Moktada al-Sadr. Richards said the Sunni police in eastern Baquba had received nothing.

To oversee the engagement process, the Maliki government recently established a nine-member committee for national reconciliation. The panel is headed by Safa al-Sheik, the deputy national security adviser and a former Air Force engineer during Hussein’s rule; it includes Bassima al-Jaidri, a Maliki aide with a reputation for sectarianism, along with security and intelligence officials. When I met with Safa in his office in Hussein’s old Military Industrialization Ministry, he insisted that the reconciliation panel had made progress in the month it had been in existence. American officials say it has approved 1,738 of the 2,400 Sunnis who had been put forward to serve as policemen in the town of Abu Ghraib, just west of Baghdad. Still, Safa acknowledged that many Iraqis are worried that the Americans might be inadvertently establishing new Sunni militias that would rise up against the authorities in Baghdad.

Newton, the British officer who was a leader of the Force Strategic Engagement Cell, had the job of bringing the Iraqi government along. “We don’t dress it up,” he told me. “Insurgent groups fear that if they cooperate, they will be targeted by the government of Iraq, and the government fears that the insurgent groups will turn on them after Al Qaeda has been dealt with. So that is the risk. We are not minimizing it. The best way to deal with that risk is to hook these groups close to you. By doing that, you bring them under a degree of control. You have the opportunity to learn how they work, which amounts to an insurance policy of future reasonable behavior.

“In Northern Ireland, reconciliation occurred in 1998, but we probably missed at least two earlier opportunities to resolve that conflict,” Newton added. “In Iraq, there is huge risk, and various people argue against taking those risks. What we are trying to explain to the government of Iraq is that this is one of those moments in a military campaign that it is sometimes difficult to realize it when you see it.”

When Colonel Odom’s squadron deployed in October of last year to Sunni territory south of Baghdad, there seemed to be little opportunity to work with the locals. His unit was assigned about 40 square miles, which included the Arab Jabour region, southeast of the capital, and a largely rural area to the west. It was a region of fish farms, narrow roads, palm trees and tall grasses — terrain that provided good hiding places for the enemy and that restricted the mobility of armored vehicles. There were no locals willing to ally themselves with the soldiers, no police officers and only a small number of Iraqi Army troops, who were largely confined to checkpoints. There were no State Department-led Provincial Reconstruction Teams — the bands of advisers who were supposed to help jump-start the Iraqi economy and build government institutions. The region was a mini-failed-state in the midst of a broader sectarian war.

Nor were there many American troops. Odom’s cavalry squadron, including support units, has 550 soldiers. The squadron’s operations south of Baghdad were what the military calls “economy of force,” which is a polite way of saying that it has few troops to carry out a demanding mission.

When I first arrived at the squadron’s headquarters at Forward Operating Base Falcon, there were already eight “Denali heroes,” as the unit described the soldiers who were killed in action. They included three combat engineers who were killed in May when an I.E.D. destroyed a Buffalo — one of the most heavily armored vehicles, used by explosive ordnance units — and two soldiers who died when a suicide bomber slammed an explosive-laden vehicle into the barriers surrounding Patrol Base Dog, an outpost that has since been abandoned, and collapsed the soldiers’ living quarters.

Odom understood the complexity of the situation and appeared to be soldiering on with grim determination. He seemed the very model of the scholar-warrior. He attended Middlebury College and later completed a master’s thesis on the Balkans conflict at King’s College, London. Most of his career had been in Ranger and airborne infantry units. During the 2003 invasion of Iraq, he served as operations officer for the 173rd Airborne Brigade, which parachuted into the Kurdish-controlled sector of northern Iraq.

Odom’s office at Forward Operating Base Falcon contained an impressive library of national security literature, including an inscribed copy of Zbigniew Brzezinski’s “Second Chance,” Raphael Patai’s tome on “The Arab Mind” and a well-thumbed copy of Samuel P. Huntington’s “Political Order in Changing Societies,” which created a furor when it was published during the height of the Vietnam War. (Huntington argued that the establishment of order was a paramount goal for developing nations, perhaps even more important than whether the society was democratic.) Odom, 42, was private about his family history, but he bore an obvious resemblance to his father, retired Lt. Gen. William E. Odom, a director of the National Security Agency under President Reagan, military aide to Brzezinski during the Carter administration and former military attaché in Moscow. Colonel Odom grew up in a household in which Russophiles, political scientists and prominent journalists held forth at the dinner table on world events. One of the most vociferous critics of the war, General Odom wrote an op-ed column for The New York Daily News on Iraq earlier this year, headlined “Know When to Fold ’Em.” Colonel Odom was more circumspect about his views. But citing Huntington, he saw the effort to secure Iraq and encourage political reconciliation as very much an uphill struggle.

The colonel also had a copy of Jean Lartéguy’s out-of-print classic, “The Centurions.” The novel, about French paratroopers who served in Vietnam and later fought in the battle of Algiers, has a memorable passage in which one officer says to another: “We no longer wage the same war as you, colonel. Nowadays it’s a mixture of everything, a regular witches’ brew . . . of politics and sentiment . . . religion and the best way of cultivating rice, yes, everything, including even the breeding of black pigs. I knew an officer in Cochin-China who, by breeding black pigs, completely restored a situation which all of us regarded as lost.”

With insurgents rife in the area, Odom’s fight in Hawr Rajab and the Arab Jabour had elements of conventional war, but it needed a witches’ brew of force and politics to succeed. Odom’s soldiers made headway in neutralizing the local Al Qaeda leadership during the first half of the year, and the emergence of Sunni security organizations in Anbar and other parts of Iraq provided a model for the residents of Hawr Rajab.

But an infusion of troops in June also facilitated a new approach: the surge policy brought a thousand-soldier-strong battalion. Commanded by Lt. Col. Kenneth Adgie — an effusive New Jersey native who played fooball for Trenton State — the First Battalion, 30th Infantry Regiment had fought its way south on the bomb-infested routes to Arab Jabour. By the time I arrived in July, they had lost six soldiers, including a tank driver who died of heat exhaustion as the temperature soared to more than 115 degrees. The unit set up tactical headquarters along the Tigris, which I visited before making my way to Odom’s squadron, and called in a series of artillery and air strikes against local Al Qaeda militants.

Adgie had made contact with some of the local sheiks and a former Iraqi general who had served in Hussein’s army, and they had provided several scouts to help the Americans sort out the militants. But the effort to recruit a more substantial volunteer force had moved slowly, with the local sheiks insisting that the Americans provide arms and Adgie explaining that recruits needed to be assembled, vetted and trained before the Americans could work with them and that under no circumstances could the U.S. military give them weapons.

The battalion’s effort nonetheless had a positive effect for Odom’s squadron. With less ground to cover, the unit was able to concentrate on Hawr Rajab and to develop contacts in the town. The fighting in Arab Jabour also had the effect of displacing some insurgents to the west, including militants who imposed a severe version of Islamic law and who used the region as a transit point for sneaking explosives into Baghdad. The Sunni residents of Hawr Rajab were soon confronted with American forces who were becoming regular visitors — and Al Qaeda insurgents from out of town who were more ruthless than the homegrown militants.

In early July, Capt. Chad Klascius, the commander of Apache Troop and one of Odom’s officers, received a call from Sheik Ali, who requested a meeting. A West Point graduate, Klascius spent several years before his Iraq duty as a member of an Opfor unit, the opposing force in the Army’s war games in Europe. The young officer had played the role of Islamic insurgent, complete with a suicide belt. Now for the first time he was going to meet with a former insurgent who wanted to make common cause with American soldiers.

The sheik, by his own admission, had led somewhat of a carefree life during the Hussein years. But he wanted payback for the murder of his father, and he wanted to restore his tribe’s authority in Hawr Rajab. The insurgents’ leaders there — unlike the foreigners who dominate Al Qaeda nationally — were Iraqis. According to local residents, they had grabbed control of one of the town’s few resources: the local gas station. Fuel from the Oil Ministry was trucked to the station several times a month, though the station was rarely open, and when it was, it sold gas for an inflated price. The station, the townspeople complained, was little more than a fuel distribution point for the militants and a revenue-raising operation for their cause.

Each side was apprehensive about a planned midnight meeting at the sheik’s home. Ali wanted to bring five armed bodyguards. The Americans were worried that they might be led into an ambush and warned that any males with weapons would be shot on sight. It was agreed that the sheik could have only unarmed protectors. To protect the sheik against retaliation, the Americans concocted an elaborate ruse. A platoon of soldiers cordoned off the home as if it were a raid, pulled Ali outside and then went into the home seemingly to conduct a search.

Once the meeting began, the sheik came to the point. According to Klascius, Ali acknowledged that he had been a supporter of Jaish al-Islami, the Sunni insurgent group. But that was in the past. He wanted Americans to set up a permanent base in Hawr Rajab and to drive Al Qaeda out. He was eager to participate in the offensive, but needed several thousand dollars in financing. He wanted a local police station to be set up in the town. He asked the Americans to distribute food and toys to the town’s residents to encourage them to support his effort to work with the Americans. And he wanted Klascius to give him a pistol to symbolize the new relationship.

Klascius insisted that the sheik provide several names to show that he was serious. He gave them the names of two members from his own tribe who lived just a few houses away. (The Americans later took them into custody.) He also gave them a 17-page, blue spiral notebook in which the sheik and his military adviser had recorded information about Al Qaeda’s activities in the town.

With a limited number of troops, the cavalry squadron was not prepared to set up a permanent presence in the town. Nor would the sheik receive his pistol. But the Americans promised there would be regular patrols and were able to distribute reward money for tips on the whereabouts of Al Qaeda militants. It was clear that the sheik’s resources were limited: one of his scouts wore shoes held together with Scotch tape.

Soon a fellow sheik came forward: Sheik Mahir Sarhan Morab al-Muini, a leader of another tribe in Hawr Rajab, who had been in prison for two years for hiding a cache of weapons. In a region of shifting alliances, Mahir was also looking to re-establish his authority in the town. Since Klascius had only 71 soldiers to deal with 8,000 townspeople and several hundred insurgents, the assistance the sheiks were offering was vital. It was not long before the sheiks and the Americans were planning joint military operations. The Americans called in an air strike on an ice factory that the militants used for their meetings, and Ali and his men raided it the next day.

The first large-scale mission was set for late July. Ali and several dozen of his men would try to establish security in Hawr Rajab by going after the Al Qaeda militants. American Apache helicopters would provide air support. Ali ignored one piece of advice from the squadron’s intelligence team: not to give his fighters advance word of the operation. The day before the operation was supposed to take place, Al Qaeda attacked. They had their own moles among Ali’s ragtag band of fighters and mounted a pre-emptive strike.

When the insurgents attacked, high winds had grounded the American choppers, forcing the sheik and his men to fight without the promised air support. After taking the risk to reach out to the Americans, Ali found he was essentially on his own. As gunfire echoed through the streets, the Iraqi commander at Checkpoint 20 funneled ammunition to Ali. But the supply soon ran out, and Ali’s fighters began to pull back.

One of the sheik’s aides threw his sister and her young children in a van and raced past Al Qaeda fighters toward the checkpoint. The militants machine-gunned the vehicle. The woman and two of her children had their wounds treated at the checkpoint and then were driven by Iraqi soldiers to a hospital in the Sunni town of Falluja, 40 miles west of Baghdad. (The hospitals in the Iraqi capital, while much closer to Hawr Rajab, are controlled by the Shiite-dominated Health Ministry, and Sunnis are terrified of being treated there.) Ali finally beat a retreat, heading south with his fighters to Yusifiya, where he linked up with Sheik Abd al-Sattar, a prominent tribal leader who was working with the Americans in Anbar. It was a low point for the new alliance. The American military was very powerful, but there were times, Ali told me somewhat ruefully, when it was slow to act.

The day after the Al Qaeda victory, Captain Klascius carried out a series of raids to beat the militants back. The Americans’ relationship with Ali was also helped by an unexpected turn of events the following week. The sheik was taken into custody at a National Police checkpoint near the squadron’s headquarters at Forward Operating Base Falcon. The Shiite-dominated police force was on the verge of turning Ali over to the Mahdi Army, an all-but-certain death sentence, when he reached the Americans on his cellphone. The soldiers from Klascius’s Apache Troop rushed to the scene. There was a tense standoff as the soldiers kept their weapons at the ready until the police handed the sheik over to his American protectors.

Much in Iraq was not the way it seemed. The former Sunni insurgent had become the Americans’ most trusted partner in Hawr Rajab, while many of the United States’ nominal allies in the Iraqi police were untested and untrustworthy.

By the beginning of last month, the alliance had been rebuilt, and it was time to resume the battle for Hawr Rajab. On Aug. 1, Ali led 29 fighters to Checkpoint 20 around midnight. The fighters were fingerprinted, and retina scans were taken so the biometric information could be entered into an intelligence database. To identify them as “friendly,” the soldiers gave them numbered orange reflector belts, the kind used by traffic crossing guards. Ali, Mahir and Odom huddled inside a nearby building to discuss the tactical situation in the town, while an American soldier and a newly minted concerned citizen exchanged past military experiences in a Tarzan-like amalgam of English and Arabic.

On the morning of Aug. 4, the Americans were to drive downtown. The day before, Klascius sketched out the plan. Two platoons, including combat engineers with heavily armored mine-detection vehicles, would clear the road to the town. Then two more platoons would head to the town square with shipments of food and a psychological operations unit. Fliers would be distributed urging the people to take back their community from the Al Qaeda militants by cooperating with the American-backed sheiks. The captain added in an offhand manner that every mounted operation the troop had conducted had encountered enemy fire. Ali’s men were to let the Americans know if I.E.D.’s had been seeded along the route, and Mahir’s men were to alert them if Al Qaeda fighters were active in the town.

We pulled out from Forward Operating Base Falcon at 5 a.m. and arrived at Checkpoint 20 only to see that Odom was already there. Ali and a couple of his men were there as well, prepared to make a triumphant entry. While the colonel and I waited for the “route clearance” team to sweep the road of I.E.D.’s, a frown crossed his face. The radio traffic reported that the operation had had its first casualty. Specialist Jose Collazo was driving a Husky mine-detecting vehicle — he had already found one I.E.D. that day — when he hit a buried bomb. The driver’s cab was thrown 50 feet. Collazo had an open head wound and had been rushed back to a sand lot in front of Checkpoint 20 to await a medevac helicopter.

The militants had resorted to the same sort of chemistry that Timothy McVeigh used in the Oklahoma City bombing. Odom explained that they had combined fertilizer and nitric acid, boiled the concoction and then extracted a white explosive substance that was laid out to dry. The explosive was very powerful, and the American military had already given the weapon a name: HME, for “homemade explosive.”

The fact that there was only one route into town must have simplified the enemy’s task. But soon word came that the ordnance team had cleared the route. The soldiers lumbered into the armored Humvees, wearing their standard kit: Kevlar helmet, body armor, ballistic glasses and Nomex gloves to protect against fire. Ali, who was wearing a track suit with “England” emblazoned across the front, had no protective gear as he settled into the cab of the lightly armored truck carrying the food. Several Iraqi soldiers also made the trip.

With the wind whipping the sand, the helicopters were grounded again. We would not have Apache gunships above us, and any medical evacuation would need to occur by ground. As we headed to town, I glanced up at our gunner and saw he was wearing a small, black memorial bracelet for one of the soldiers killed in the April suicide bombing at Patrol Base Dog. It was one way soldiers have been honoring their fallen comrades and is increasingly common. Klascius observed that the stores were shuttered. That was a bad sign. The residents tended to clear out when trouble was expected.

After we reached the town center, the Humvees and the food truck formed a protective circle. The soldiers jumped down and began scanning the streets for militants. Ali got on a loudspeaker to urge the residents to come get the food. A few residents nervously approached. A soldier waved a metal detector over them to check for bombs after they entered the perimeter. But the citizens did not seem threatening, and the soldiers were preoccupied with the threat of snipers. The soldiers handed out several bags of rice, some cans of tomato paste and powdered milk.

As I was scribbling some notes, there was a boom in the distance. Klascius ran over to me and instructed me to get back in the Humvee. “The colonel’s been hit,” he said.

We drove back toward Checkpoint 20 and came upon a terrible sight. The twisted wreck of a Humvee was in the middle of the road. Combat medics were hovering over two soldiers lying in the grass. One was the turret gunner. The other was Odom, whose face was swathed in bandages. The wounded soldiers were lifted by stretcher into waiting Humvees and driven back.

Another Humvee, meanwhile, drove down from Checkpoint 20 to guard our flank. Suddenly there was a massive blast. Much of that Humvee disintegrated into fragments that rained down around us. Nobody could survive such a blast. The radio traffic reported three killed in action.

We were trapped on a “Tier 1 I.E.D. site”— a stretch of road chockablock with buried bombs — with no air cover. There was no heading back to town: the soldiers who had stayed there had been attacked by small arms, and two had been wounded. They would need to be evacuated as well. Yet heading back to Checkpoint 20 was still problematic. A Humvee started to make its way, only to set off another bomb. This blast, at least, was not catastrophic. The front end of the vehicle had been blown off, but there were no casualties.

As we sat in the captain’s Humvee and waited to make our return on the road, Ben Lowy, an experienced combat photographer, asked me for a pen and wrote his blood type on each of his Nomex gloves. With no Apaches on call, the soldiers called in a “show of force” mission. A jet flew by and bombed an empty field to show the adversary the Americans could call in an air strike if necessary. It was not clear if the enemy was still around to absorb this message — or if he would care.

We had no choice but to leave. A few vehicles made their way back, and we followed. After driving a short stretch, our vehicle stopped by the side of the road, and Captain Klascius walked back to supervise the scene. There were vehicles to recover and the grim business of collecting human remains. Several soldiers took black bags out of the Humvees and began to walk the fields in search of body parts. The road was a tableau of destruction. There were a soldier’s soft cap, a can of chewing tobacco, part of a notebook and the twisted end of a gun.

“I need another body bag,” a soldier called out.

A trooper asked if he had found another body.

“Don’t know,” the first soldier replied.

The three Iraqi soldiers who came with the mission — cigarettes in their mouths, cradling their weapons — pointed out some of the remains to the American soldiers but refrained from picking up the pieces. Ali sat in the front cab of the food truck, staring straight ahead.

As the soldiers went about their task, Klascius raised his weapon and peered through the scope at two men peering at our position from the roof of a building in the distance. “Best 1,200 bucks I ever spent,” he muttered. Since his troops had been supplied with only 10 high-powered scopes, he had bought his own. Klascius got on the radio and reported that the stricken convoy was being watched. The Americans needed to get back before they were attacked again.

When we got back to Checkpoint 20, the outpost was silent. The soldiers had lost three of their comrades. Another eight had been wounded. The enemy had suffered no casualties. Food had been given out to 40 residents.

At Forward Operating Base Falcon, the commanders imposed “River City” — they shut down the unclassified Internet connection the soldiers used to chat with their families and to blog so that word of the casualties would not spread until the next of kin were notified. That night, I went to the airfield at the base for the “angel flight.” A formation of soldiers lined up and saluted as the caskets of the three dead soldiers were carried to the tarmac so they could be flown away.

It was later determined that the militants had laid a defensive belt of seven I.E.D.’s. Hidden wires enabled them to activate the bombs so that they would not be blown up by civilian traffic. After being activated, the bombs were set to explode when the vehicles rolled over pressure-plate detonators. It was an ingenious and low-cost defense, and that day they had owned the road. It was, Klascius observed, his most violent day in Iraq, but it was but one day in a long war and not the end of the battle for the town.

I stayed in contact with Colonel Odom’s squadron and received an update two weeks later. Ali and Mahir had stayed in the fight and recruited an additional 25 fighters. The squadron had killed two militants and detained 22 more, including some who were believed to have been involved in the Aug. 4 attack. Some $2,800 in reward money had been paid for useful tips. The Concerned Local Citizens had detained more Al Qaeda militants — and had lost one of their own men, who was captured and beheaded. The sheiks were planning continued operations to clear the town.

From Arab Jabour, Colonel Adgie reported that 170 concerned citizens had been recruited by the former Iraqi general who had allied himself with the Americans. Adgie’s battalion had continued to press the fight against the militants but paid a high price on Aug. 11 when one soldier was shot and killed by a sniper; four others died when they went to search a nearby building that turned out to be rigged with bombs. Still, Adgie said he thought the effort to build a local security force was making headway. “We are still in the crawl stage, but I believe we’re on the right track,” he told me in an e-mail message.

I tracked down Specialist Collazo, the Husky driver, who was an outpatient in Texas and sounded as if he was recovering well. As for Odom, he had returned to his home base at Fort Richardson, Alaska. His left arm and his nose were broken, and he had suffered a concussion. Despite the Hawr Rajab setback, he said that the cooperation with the sheiks had the potential to reduce the attacks on his soldiers and stabilize the town.

But he was philosophical about the way ahead. The political gridlock at the national level had made the recruiting and organizing of Sunni groups around Iraq all the more important. But what would happen once bands of concerned citizens were organized, trained and equipped? If the Iraqi government embraced the strategy, the effort to work with tribal leaders and local insurgents could lead to a broader political reconciliation. “At the local and national level, it could provide impetus to force some reconciliation,” Odom observed. “In other words, the Sunnis could come to have some sort of legitimacy through us.”

But if the effort to forge a link between the central government and the new security groups falters, the United States might simply be laying the groundwork for a heightened round of civil strife. The Iraqi government and the security forces it controls might become alarmed if Sunni security organizations were to sprout around the country and begin to network, and Shiite militias might also respond by stepping up their attacks.

“We have not made political progress at the national level,” Odom said. “We have taken on a decentralized effort with the concerned citizens at the local level and somehow hope that we can tie it back into the local and national government at the end of the day.”