The Musa Qala Problem

The Afghan government, its NATO allies, and Pakistan all face the same problem.

They want to let pushtun Afghan and Waziristan local governments rule themselves. In a way, they have to because Afghan, Pakistani and NATO really can't control the countryside. National authorities just don't have the numbers or local support to do it.

But the local authorities, well-intentioned as they may (or may not) be, cannot compete with the power of the Taliban. And as a result, deals like those made in Waziristan or Musa Qala in Afghanistan, under which Afghan, NATO and Pakistani forces leave areas and local elders take over, just cannot succeed. Taliban forces come in, take over, and then state-sanctioned national authorities have to use bombings and rough tactics to take the area back.

Based on the local conditions and numbers of troops, these types of deals are pretty predictable. But based on the way these local turnovers have turned out, they seem like predictably bad ideas.