After Russian Shake-Up, Speculation on Succession

By CLIFFORD J. LEVY and C. J. CHIVERS

MOSCOW, Sept. 13 — The Russian political insider nominated by President Vladimir V. Putin to be the country’s next prime minister said today that he might consider running for president in elections next year.

“If I succeed in doing something in the post of premier, if I manage to do something, then I do not exclude this alternative, maybe, as well, the nominee,” Viktor A. Zubkov, told reporters during an appearance at Parliament in Moscow.

A day after Mr. Putin named Mr. Zubkov, the low-profile chief of a financial crimes agency, Kremlin watchers and diplomats remain perplexed by what the move means for the pressing question of who might succeed Mr. Putin if he steps down next spring at the end of his second term. He has said repeatedly that he will, and he is required to under Russia’s Constitution.

Mr. Zubkov’s appearance at Parliament and his comments today added fuel to speculation about whether he is being put in place in merely a caretaker role or whether he could be a serious presidential contender.

On a trip outside of Moscow today, Mr. Putin said the change of prime minister was meant to ensure stability during the coming election period. “I expect all these changes will lead to the system of government in Russia functioning without hitches in the election period and after the election period,” Mr. Putin said on Russian television, Reuters reported.

The moves on Wednesday — Mr. Putin accepted the resignation of the current prime minister before nominating Mr. Zubkov — signaled the beginning of an internal Kremlin rearrangement ahead of parliamentary elections in the late fall and Mr. Putin’s expected transfer of presidential power next year. But an aura of mystery continues to surround the reshuffle.

The instant rise to prominence of the unheralded Mr. Zubkov, a confidant of Mr. Putin, added a new element of suspense for the two Russian officials long regarded as the principal presidential contenders: Sergei B. Ivanov and Dmitry A. Medvedev, both first deputy prime ministers.

Neither of the men was elevated by the shifts, nor was one pushed aside.

But what motivated Mr. Putin to elevate Mr. Zubkov was puzzled over in political circles. Did he want to create a new competitor in the race to succeed him? Or, more pragmatically, was he trying to rebalance rival factions inside the Kremlin’s inner sanctum while appointing a faithful bureaucrat to manage the government as it enters back-to-back elections?

Some diplomats and political analysts said they thought Mr. Putin may simply have found an able prime minister who could help assure a smooth transition to an unannounced successor. Others said he may have settled on a compromise candidate who would give him more time to decide who ultimately will be his replacement.

In principle, Russia holds elections by popular vote, including those for president. In practice, though, the ballots are carefully managed by the Kremlin, and are won handily by sanctioned candidates who receive support from the government and state-controlled news media.

Political commentators and the Kremlin’s own spokesman have said a public endorsement from Mr. Putin, who has had durably high public approval ratings in Russia, will be a prerequisite for a candidate to win the presidency next year. But in Wednesday’s reshuffling, Mr. Putin did not send out any signals about whom he might support.

Instead, there was stagecraft that introduced a new name to the top of Russia’s government. And while Mr. Putin, in televised remarks on Wednesday, made clear that the shifts were related to the elections, he spoke elliptically about what they would ultimately mean.

“We all together have to think about how to build the structure of power and management so that they would better correspond to the pre-election period and prepare the country for the period after the March presidential election,” he said.

The prime minister, Mikhail Y. Fradkov, offered his resignation Wednesday on national television, using the scripted format to say that Mr. Putin could now build “a power structure in light of the upcoming political events.”

That part of the day’s events, at least, was no surprise. Mr. Fradkov, a technocrat who had managed government affairs for more than three years without showing ambition for higher office, had been expected to step aside to make way for a presidential contender this fall.

Mr. Fradkov had also quarreled publicly with other ministers, who had been regarded by some experts here as an unwelcome sign in a government that seeks to show unity as elections draw near. The Wednesday edition of the daily business newspaper Vedomosti had said that his resignation was imminent, and that Mr. Ivanov would probably succeed him.

But a series of finely timed moves followed the resignation that surprised analysts, diplomats and even political commentators who have close Kremlin connections.

Mr. Putin gave Mr. Fradkov a prestigious government award and directed him to remain at his post until a successor was confirmed. He then promptly nominated Mr. Zubkov.

Under the Constitution, the Duma, Russia’s lower house of Parliament, has one week to consider the choice. Parliament is firmly under Mr. Putin’s control, and Boris Gryzlov, the Duma’s speaker, expressed support for Mr. Zubkov within 20 minutes of his nomination.

Mr. Gryzlov said Wednesday that a date for debate on the appointment would be set today. A senior legislator from the Duma’s United Russia faction, a party unequivocally loyal to Mr. Putin, quickly announced that Mr. Zubkov could be confirmed as soon as Friday.

While Mr. Putin is barred from seeking re-election, speculation has swirled through much of his term about whether — and how — he would step down, and who might replace him.

Whether Mr. Zubkov had been nominated to serve strictly as a prime minister, like Mr. Fradkov, or was now a presidential contender himself, was an open question. There were signs, however, that at least Mr. Ivanov remained confident.

On Wednesday evening, he appeared before reporters, looking upbeat and at ease. “I think the Duma will review favorably the candidacy of Zubkov,” he said.

Mr. Medvedev has made no public appearances or statements.

Mr. Zubkov, 65, is relatively unknown; a survey of political experts in 2006 of Russia’s 100 most influential politicians, conducted by the Center for Public Opinion Research, ranked him 84th.

But he is a longtime associate of Mr. Putin’s, and has roots in the same political circles in St. Petersburg that Mr. Putin and many of his confidants share.

In 1992 and 1993, he was Mr. Putin’s deputy at the External Relations Committee of the St. Petersburg mayor’s office, and since 1993 he has worked as a supervisor of tax inspectors and financial crimes, first in St. Petersburg and since 2001 in Mr. Putin’s federal government.

It was not clear whether his résumé fully matched those of the officials in Mr. Putin’s inner circle, which is dominated by former officers of the K.G.B.

Konstantin V. Remchukov, the editor of the Nezavisimaya Gazeta here and a former adviser to the minister of economy, said Wednesday that Mr. Zubkov probably was not a presidential successor. Rather, he said, he was a man who had Mr. Putin’s confidence to help solidify the government and who would follow his instructions precisely during the months preceding the expected succession.

Mr. Remchukov said he met with Mr. Putin in August, in Sochi, with other Russian newspaper editors. Mr. Remchukov said that he told the president that the country needed more business competition, and that the role of the anti-monopoly agency should be strengthened.

Mr. Putin responded, he said, by saying: “Let us look at Zubkov’s ministry. I am surprised that at this age, a man could organize this service so well, and he didn’t need a higher rank.”

That was on Aug. 24. Mr. Remchukov interpreted this to mean that Mr. Putin had already decided to appoint Mr. Zubkov, or at least was considering it, by that date.

Mr. Remchukov said the nomination could also be seen as a sign that Mr. Putin had not yet chosen his replacement, or wanted to keep his selection unknown. His intention is always to surprise, he said.

Andrew E. Kramer, Serge Schmemann, Michael Schwirtz and Graham Bowley contributed reporting.