Iraq Reports To Be Released Soon

• The August 23 Iraq NIE
  On August 23, the Director of National Intelligence released a mixed National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) reflecting some successes, notably cleavage between Sunnis and Al Qaeda in Iraq, but an overall lack of political breakthroughs necessary for success in Iraq.
  
  Both sides of the Iraq debate have used this report as ammunition.


• The GAO Report
  Karen DeYoung and Tom Ricks of The Washington Post were given an advance copy of this "strikingly negative" report from the GAO, a legislative branch auditing and research agency, by a government official afraid the report's conclusions would be watered down when it is officially released.
  
  It is due to be released on Tuesday, September 4.
  
  The GAO Report was prepared at Congressional direction and GAO does not have the leeway other required reporters have in stating that Iraq's government has made "progress" toward specific benchmarks. It mus make a "success" or "failure" determination on each benchmark.
  
  Stung by the harsh conclusions of the report, the Bush Administration has pushed back, emphasizing the report's limitations.
  
  An interesting point of cleavage highlighted by the report is the backsliding of formerly relatively independent Iraqi military units. These have declined from 10 to 6. Some U.S. military leaders in Iraq have stated that training and building of Iraqi forces is a slow-building success. But General James Dubik, who is is in charge of U.S. training efforts, has stated that the problems of Iraqi forces are significant and should not be taken lightly.


• The Jones Report
  This report was prepared by a group headed by recently-retired SACEUR and Marine Corps Commandant James L. Jones, consisting of 14 former military and law enforcement officers.
  
  One of the group's major recommendations has been a complete reformation of the Iraqi National Police and Iraqi local police. The Iraqi police have been cited by nearly everyone as an Iraqi institution that has been thoroughly infiltrated by sectarian militias. In Shiite areas, the police are known to actively collaborate with militias against U.S. forces.
  
  Democrats will certainly seize on this reported failure, though the Department of Defense and Bush Administration have stated that they will not give up on the existing Iraqi police. The report is due to be presented to Congress next week, and Administration officials were briefed on it last week.


• The Petraeus Report
  It is hard to overstate the extent to which the Bush Administration's efforts continue fighting the war in Iraq are tied to the credibility of one man, General David Petraeus. To a significant extent, Congress has held off on a full-throated effort to end the war in Iraq until General Petraeus has an opportunity to implement his new counterinsurgency strategy in Iraq.
  
  Next week, General Petraeus is to report on the successes and failures of American strategy in Iraq under his leadership. A poor report will give impetus to Democratic efforts to end the war. A positive report will give the Bush Administration war effort a stronger hand.
  
  Petraeus is to testify to Congress along with our Ambassador in Baghdad, Ryan Crocker, on September 10.
  
  At present, the only thing that has been agreed by everyone in Congress and the White House is that they will consider the Petraeus Report very important. Due to its importance, the report is likely to be significantly influenced by the White House and will be viewed skeptically by Democrats in Congress.


• The Report To Petraeus
  A military official and intelligence officer reported to General Petraeus in an internal assessment that concludes the Shiite-dominated Iraqi government is truly unenthusiastic about a government of national unity. Apparently Petraeus receives a reports like this frequently. It reflects the intellectual struggle within the military to define and address the problem we face in Iraq.


• Conclusion
  None of these reports is likely to change many minds. But these reports will be the ammunition that Congress, the White House, press and the public will have to get used to using over the momentous Iraq debates likely to come during the next couple of months.