Taiwan Plans to Build Missiles Able to Hit China

By DAVID LAGUE

TAIPEI, Taiwan — Faced with a threatening military buildup by China, an increasingly outgunned Taiwan is quietly pushing ahead with plans to develop missiles that could strike the mainland, defense and security experts say.

Taiwan successfully tested its first cruise missile with that kind of range this year, one that could send a nearly 900-pound warhead more than 600 miles, to targets as distant as Shanghai, military analysts said.

Some Taiwanese military specialists have argued for decades that Taiwan should develop offensive weapons, including missiles, as a deterrent to the mainland, which has threatened to attack the self-governing island if it moves toward formal independence. The Pentagon estimates that China has deployed 900 missiles across from Taiwan.

Senior military officials and lawmakers in the governing Democratic Progressive Party of President Chen Shui-bian have confirmed that the cruise missiles were under development.

They said these missiles were essential to Taiwan’s defense because of China’s soaring spending on weapons.

“They want to make mainland China hesitate before launching any attack,” said Andrei Chang, a Hong Kong-based expert on the Chinese and Taiwanese militaries and editor in chief of Kanwa Defense Review magazine. “These missiles could not only destroy military targets, but financial and economic targets as well.

“They want to create massive panic,” he added.

There have also been unconfirmed news reports in Taiwan that the military is developing short-range ballistic missiles. Mr. Chen’s independence-leaning administration refuses to comment on the existence of such a program.

At a time when Taipei has angered China with a decision to hold a referendum on the island’s bid to rejoin the United Nations under the name of Taiwan, the deployment of missiles that could strike the mainland could further increase tensions. The Bush administration has signaled that it opposes Taiwan’s developing such weapons.

There were reports in the Taiwanese news media this month that, under pressure from Washington, the Chen administration had dropped plans to deploy surface-to-surface missiles on outlying Matsu island near the coast of Fujian Province, China.

Missiles deployed on Matsu would be able to strike targets on the mainland where China has concentrated air, missile and land forces opposite Taiwan.

Taiwan’s military refused to comment, but Beijing this week reacted sharply to the reports.

“We sternly warn the Taiwan authorities not to play with fire,” Li Weiyi, a spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, told a regular news briefing on Wednesday, according to a report carried by the official Xinhua news agency. “Whoever plays with fire will get burned.”

But analysts believe it will be difficult for the Bush administration to restrain Taipei while China continues its rapid buildup of missiles that could strike military targets and vital infrastructure on Taiwan.

The American and Taiwanese militaries estimate that China adds up to 100 new missiles a year to those arrayed against the island.

“Taiwan will go ahead,” said Andrew Yang, secretary general of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a Taipei-based security policy institute. “It sends a signal that Taiwan will not be sitting and waiting for Beijing to conduct a strike against Taiwan.”

Mr. Chang, the Defense Review editor, and other experts are confident that the land attack cruise missile, the Hsiung Feng-2E, developed at the Taiwan military’s Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology, could soon be in production after its test in February.

“I am sure it is almost ready,” Mr. Chang said.

But Mr. Yang and some other analysts held out the possibility that, despite the successful test, some of the reports about the new missile’s capabilities could be exaggerated.

He said that the missile had been tested only to about 200 miles, a third of its theoretical maximum range. The shorter range would be enough only to reach coastal targets on the mainland.

But there was potential for improvement as development continued.

“In five years’ time, the range could be extended,” he said.