Despite Problems, Iraqi Leader Boasts of Success

Rivals See Maliki's Confidence as Rash, but Publicly Deny a Move to Topple Him

By Amit R. Paley and Joshua Partlow
Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, February 29, 2008; A12

BAGHDAD, Feb. 28 -- Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki gazed out at a sea of chanting Shiite pilgrims Thursday and offered a brash appraisal of his administration's 21-month tenure.

"We promised we would bring national reconciliation to the sons of Iraq, and we have succeeded!" Maliki thundered to hundreds of thousands of Shiites gathered at the golden-domed Imam Hussein Shrine in Karbala. "Iraqis are once again loving brothers!"

Maliki is facing a drumbeat of criticism that his government has achieved little progress as well as constant calls for his ouster, but these days he hardly sounds like a man fighting for his political survival. He acts as if he has the upper hand over his political rivals, brusquely rejecting demands from key allies and making a bold grab for greater control of the federal bureaucracy.

The 57-year-old Shiite and former exile feels little cause for concern, according to his aides, because he enjoys the strong backing of the Bush administration, which worries that the chaos triggered by the collapse of Maliki's government would prompt a new wave of sectarian bloodletting across Iraq. With the infighting by the political class in Iraq as bitter as ever, Maliki believes the odds are remote that any coalition could come together to oust him, his aides say.

"The message is that he is tough and he is not going to compromise," said Sami al-Askiri, a Shiite member of parliament who is a confidant and informal adviser to Maliki. "I think now the prime minister feels that he is more secure, both for himself and for the country in general."

Maliki's confidence seems untethered to political reality. Predicting when his government will fall has become a parlor game in certain circles in Baghdad. And some of his pronouncements -- like one on Thursday that "sectarianism has been eliminated" -- have struck Iraqi and American officials as bordering on the delusional. Sectarian killings are still common and political reconciliation remains elusive, a fact underscored by the veto this week of a law calling for nationwide elections, one of the few major pieces of legislation approved by parliament.

"He's failed at governing," acknowledged a senior U.S. official in Baghdad, who was granted anonymity so he could speak candidly, but the official said there was no better option. "If Maliki were to be removed by a vote of no confidence, we'd go into an extended period of stagnation."

Publicly, at least, Maliki's major political rivals have expressed support for him and denied persistent rumors that they are plotting to topple him. One of the figures most regularly listed as a potential successor, Vice President Adel Abdul Mahdi, has no current plans to unseat Maliki, his associates said.

"For the time being, our strategy is to see that he remains," Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the leader of Abdul Mahdi's Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a powerful Shiite political party, said in an interview. "It's necessary to see a change happen in the government, not a change of the government."

But the emerging braggadocio displayed by Maliki has tested the limits of that support.

Perhaps the most serious showdown came in December, when a group of senior Kurdish officials flew to Baghdad to discuss a list of demands with Maliki.

The delegation, led by the prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government, Nechirvan Barzani, wanted to ensure that the Kurds would receive 17 percent of Iraq's $50 billion budget, a figure that Maliki believed was far too high. The Kurds also wanted the central government in Baghdad to fund their regional military, known as the pesh merga; to allow them to pursue independent oil contracts with foreign companies; and to support their push to bring the oil-rich northern city of Kirkuk under Kurdish control.

Maliki didn't mince words. "Everything the constitution says is your right, we will give you," Askiri, his informal adviser, recalled him saying. "Everything the constitution says is not your right, I will take it from you."

The next morning, the Kurdish delegation canceled its remaining meetings and flew back to northern Iraq, according to Askiri. "So they got a message," he said.

A few days later, the Kurdish leadership sent a letter outlining its concerns over the direction of the government and calling for immediate changes. The implicit threat was that the Kurds could pull out of the government at any time, and some members of the bloc seriously considered a campaign to oust Maliki, according to U.S. and Iraqi officials.

"The prime minister cannot go solo," said Abdul Khaliq Zangana, a Kurdish member of parliament. "We are not obligated to stay in this government. We could bring it down."

The Kurds ultimately did not engage in a sustained effort to topple Maliki, but they did set in motion a number of changes to the political landscape. In late December, the two top Kurdish leaders -- Iraq's president, Jalal Talabani, and the president of the Kurdish region, Massoud Barzani -- announced a new political alliance with the top Sunni official in the government, Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, a longtime enemy of Maliki.

Not long after, Maliki agreed to hold his first meetings in months with some of his fiercest political rivals. The sessions of the "three plus one" group -- Maliki and the three-member presidency council, which is made up of Talabani, Hashimi and Abdul Mahdi -- began in January after a six-month hiatus during which some of the leaders hardly spoke to one another.

The parliament also passed a budget that gives the Kurds the 17 percent they had demanded.

The tense relationship between Maliki, the top Shiite in government, and Hashimi, the highest-ranking Sunni, had been particularly acrimonious. "That is one relationship that really is genuinely bad," said the senior U.S. official, calling it "dysfunctional."

"The levels of fear and mistrust are so great between every party," the official said. "Nobody trusts anybody else. There is no background or history of political compromise."

In an interview, Hashimi said the prime minister recently seemed more comfortable in exchanging information with top government officials whom he had previously shut out of the process.

"There is a sign of improvement in mentality and attitude," said Hashimi, whose party pulled out of Maliki's cabinet last year and continues to boycott it. "He's now sharing views with us about the candidates for high-ranking posts in the government. For the first time he is telling us what has been done, what he is going to do. I myself have been invited for the first time to attend high-level meetings."

Maliki's associates said he is more willing to engage in dialogue with Hashimi because he now feels less apprehensive that the Sunnis are prepared to launch a coup, something he previously felt was a strong possibility.

At the same time, however, the prime minister is reluctant to cede any actual control to rival politicians. In a move that would greatly expand his control over the government, Maliki proposed a radical overhaul of the cabinet that would result in the dismissal of nearly all the ministers and concentrate more power in his hands. Specifically, the measure would reduce the number of ministries from 37 to 32; forbid the selection of ministers affiliated with political parties; and grant Maliki control over appointing them.

The measure would be such a blow to the other political parties that even Maliki's aides said it is unlikely he will be able to push the project through the legislature.

"I'm not too optimistic about a positive response," said Sadiq al-Rikabi, a political adviser to the prime minister.